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Browns-Broncos Betting Preview: Will Denver’s Ground Game Be the Difference?

Dec 15, 2018 2:10 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield (6), Phillip Lindsay (30).

Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

  • Spread: Broncos -2.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NFL Network

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The betting public is very much split on this game, with 51% of tickets on the Broncos at the time of writing (click here for live odds).

Cleveland is getting more than 70% of the cash, though, which has helped move the Browns from +3.5/4 to +2.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: From 2003-15, home favorites in prime time games (7 p.m. or later) were 188-185-11 ATS (50.4%) according to our Bet Labs data.

But over the past three seasons, home favorites in prime time have dominated, going 51-37-6 against the spread (58%), including 44-28-4 ATS (61.1%) when the two teams are familiar opponents and are from the same conference. — Evan Abrams

The Broncos’ defense has been its usual self this season, allowing just 21.7 points per game, which is top-10 in the NFL, and in their 13 games, they are 10-3 (77%) to the under. In each of the Broncos’ past five games, they have gone under the total by a margin of 8.3 PPG.

Over the past five seasons, four teams have fit this description: Playing at home + in December or later + on an under streak of five or more games + with at least 75% of their games going under the total. The under is 4-0 in those games, going under the total by 16 PPG. — Abrams