On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s Darren Rovell tweeted that Bud Light will be installing “Victory Fridges” in 10 Cleveland-area bars.
These fridges will reportedly be unlocked after the Browns win their first regular-season game, allowing fans to drink free beer and celebrate the team’s first victory since beating the San Diego Chargers on Dec. 24, 2016.
While there will certainly be plenty of Browns fans stalking the coolers all season (which isn’t sad at all), we turned to our Bet Labs NFL simulations to rank Cleveland’s best chances at tasting victory, and free Bud Light, this season.
Week 3 vs. New York Jets
Following tough games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints to open the season, Cleveland gets a crack at the Jets at home.
Free beer aside, this matchup could actually be an interesting game to watch should rookies Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold both win their respective starting jobs.
Back in May, CG Technology released point spreads for every game from Week 1 – Week 16. With the Browns being 2.5-point favorites, this is their best opportunity to score a win based on those spreads.
Our Bet Labs simulations are even more bullish on the Browns in that matchup, giving them a 75.9% chance of earning a long-awaited W.
Week 16 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Should the Browns let their fans down in Week 3 — which they’ve been known to do — their second-best opportunity to win is months later in Week 16 against the Bengals. With the Browns a 1-point favorite at CG Technology, this is the second and final time they’re expected to be favored during the entire 2018 regular season.
Our simulations peg Cleveland with a 62.9% chance to beat Cincy and send Browns fans into a free beer frenzy, albeit a skunky free beer frenzy.
Here are Cleveland’s next-best opportunities to get a win this season based on our simulations:
- Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens (53%)
- Week 12 at Cincinnati Bengals (51.2%)
- Week 4 at Oakland Raiders (48.3%)