NFL Saturday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Colts-Chiefs Spread, Over/Under
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on Saturday's NFL Divisional Round playoff game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs (4:35 p.m. ET on NBC).
- The Chiefs are currently listed as 5.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 57.
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting this game.
Last week, underdogs went a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) during Wild Card Weekend. Meanwhile, Unders went 3-1. Will sharp bettors be riding the hot trend this weekend? Or will they go the other way with the expectation that regression is inevitable?
In case you didn’t know, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
So how are sharps betting Colts-Chiefs?
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
- Kickoff: 4:35 p.m. ET | NBC
Sharp angle: Colts (moved from +6 to +5.5 or +5) and Under (57)
Sharps and squares (recreational players who bet for fun) are largely on the same side when it comes to the spread.
Kansas City (12-4) opened as a consensus 5-point home favorite. Early Chiefs betting pushed KC up to the key number of -6. That’s when sharp Colts (11-6) money hit the market, dropping the line back down to +5.5, and even +5 in some spots.
Throughout the week, the betting percentages have steadily risen in favor of Indianapolis. Currently, 59% of bets and 68% of dollars are taking Captain Andrew Luck and Company. This +11% bets vs. dollars discrepancy is further evidence of wiseguys grabbing the points, not laying them.
The Colts are also in a profitable historical spot. According to our Bet Labs software, underdogs have gone 56.1% ATS in the NFL playoffs and 63.8% in the Divisional Round since 2003.
Sharps have also taken a side on the total.
This over/under opened at 56.5. With two high-powered offenses going head-to-head, the public is pounding the over to the tune of 65% of bets. However, despite this heavy betting, the total has barely budged (56.5 to 57).
This “line freeze” signals sharp action on the under, with oddsmakers reluctant to hand out additional points to wiseguys on the under.
The under is getting only 36% of bets but 46% of dollars — signaling smart money banking on a lower-scoring game.
Two added bonuses for Goodfellas sweating the Under: the weather and officials.
Arrowhead Stadium is expecting 30-degree temperatures and 10-12 mph winds around kickoff. Since 2003, playoff games with winds of at least 10 mph have gone Under 63.8% of the time.
Also, John Hussey is the head official. Since 2003, the Under has hit at a 62.3% clip when Hussey is the lead ref.