Cowboys vs. Seahawks Betting Picks: How To Play This Spread & Total
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pectured: Ezekiel Elliott
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Our staff has you covered with how they’re betting Sunday’s spread and total.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks Picks
We’ve included books offering the best lines as of writing, but you can compare real-time odds here.
Chris Raybon: Cowboys +5.5
I love the Seahawks’ upside this season and have backed them in each of the first two weeks, but this is a smart spot to fade them.
They’ve been overachieving while the Cowboys haven’t played their best ball, yet have lost by three points and won by one. And if the Seahawks don’t make that goal-line stand on the final play last week, this spread would likely be closer to -3, which is what I make it.
This is the classic type of situation in which bettors tend to overrate Seattle and overlook Dallas. Dating back to 2015, Seattle has covered in just 2-of-8 games at The Link when on the second leg of back-to-back home games, according to our Bet Labs data. And since 2017, it is 7-12-1 (37%) against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite, winning by six or more points just 30% of the time.
Dak Prescott, meanwhile, has led the Cowboys to a 12-5 (71%) ATS record as underdogs of more than one point.
Especially with glaring issues in pass defense, the Seahawks don’t often post huge margins of victory. They’re 13-5 over the 18 regular-season games they’ve played since the start of last season but only 7-of-18 (38.8%) have resulted in wins by six or more points.
I would play the Cowboys down to +3.5.
Stuckey: Cowboys +5
In true Seahawks fashion, even with Russell Wilson playing a near-perfect game, they won another one-possession game last week after the Patriots failed to run a QB sneak for the win. For the second straight game, Seattle was outgained by its opponent and has now allowed the third-highest average yards per play rate in the league at 6.7.
It’s a tiny sample size against two solid offenses, but the defense undoubtedly has holes for Dallas to exploit.
Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar were major upgrades for the defense, but it will take some time for that secondary to gel. Losing Marquise Blair doesn’t help matters, either. Plus, Seattle still has an awful defensive line that doesn’t really generate pressure and now won’t have Bruce Irvin (ACL).
The injuries for Dallas are concerning and worth monitoring, but the Boys still shouldn’t be 5.5-point underdogs here. Coming into the season, I made the Cowboys -1.5 in this spot. I’ve since adjusted both teams for personnel and production but still don’t even get to Seattle -3.
Even with all of their injuries, the Cowboys had a chance to beat the Rams in Week 1 if not for a curious fourth-down play call and questionable penalty late in the game. Yes, they had a miraculous comeback against the Falcons in Week 2, but let’s not act like Dallas didn’t dominate that game. The Cowboys finished with 200 more total yards and almost a full 2.0 yards per play advantage while the Falcons benefited from extremely good fortune on fourth downs and early fumbles.
Yes, Russ will cook, but the Cowboys should also eat.
This one should come down to the wire like most Seattle games, so I’ll gladly take this generous price.
Sean Koerner: Under 57
It pains me to target the under in a matchup that offers a ton of fantasy football potential. However, with bettors pounding the over, this total peaked at 57.5 earlier this week. That’s when I hit the under, and while the total sits at 56.5 across the market as of writing, it could reach 57 again by kickoff — that’s where I would bet the under to.
We need only a few stops on defense for the under to hit with a total of 57.
One area in which regression could be on our side is red-zone scoring percentage: Seattle has scored a touchdown on 100% of its red-zone trips this season (first) while Dallas has scored a touchdown on 70% (seventh). For context, the top team(s) in that metric usually finish around 70%, and while I expect the Seahawks to be a top-three offense the rest of the season, they’ll eventually have a game in which they’ll have to settle for a field goal (or two) in the red zone — mark my words.
The Seahawks defense should only improve as safety Jamal Adams continues to perfect his role on his new team. He can help shut down an opposing offense in nearly every facet. And if offensive tackle Tyron Smith (game-time decision) is unable to suit up for the second straight game, it would be a massive loss for the Cowboys offense.
I’ll be fading the public here, fully aware of this game’s scoring potential. But 57.5 provided just enough value that I couldn’t pass it up. Fire up the under if the total reaches 57 again before kickoff.