Cowboys-Giants Betting Preview: G-Men Have Motivational Edge

Betting odds: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

• Spread: Giants -6
• Over/Under: 41
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The Cowboys could be resting everyone and some people probably think they should, seeing as they can do nothing to improve their seed in the playoff picture. However, they haven’t said they’re going to … yet.

The majority bettors are unfazed by the uncertainty, as 55% of tickets are on the Cowboys at the time of writing. It’s tough to bet on the Giants winning by a touchdown when you have no confirmation about Dallas’s plans.

With more than 90% of the early money on the under, the total has dropped a couple points down to 41 since opening (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Playoff picture: As Mark mentioned, the Cowboys have no incentive to care about this game. They're locked into the No. 4 in the NFC and will likely host Seattle in the wild-card round. — Scott T. Miller

Trends to know: Week 17 always creates quirky situations and in the Cowboys-Giants game, New York is favored by six points despite a 5-10 record.

In Eli Manning’s career, he is 18-11 against the spread (62.1%) when the G-Men are listed as the favorite in one of the last four games of the season.

Manning is the third-most profitable QB in our Bet Labs database in this spot, behind only Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. — Evan Abrams

Since 2003, teams with a losing record have gone 60-48-4 ATS when facing an opponent with a winning record in Week 17. Teams that are favored, like the Giants, have gone 12-5-1 ATS during that time. — John Ewing

Draft order: The Giants are currently in a tie with the Bills for the No. 7 overall draft pick. A win against Dallas could very well knock New York out of the top 10. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Giants Motivations vs. Cowboys Motivations

Even though the Giants should want to lose in order to improve their draft position, head coach Pat Shurmur and Manning have been coaching and playing for their 2019 jobs since they entered the Week 9 bye with a 1-7 record.

In the second half of the season, the Giants are 4-3 and have displayed a competitiveness they notably lacked in the first half.

• Giants, Weeks 1-8: 1-7 record, -6.88 differential, 18.75 points scored, 25.62 points allowed
• Giants, Weeks 10-16: 4-3 record, 1.86 differential, 26.29 points scored, 24.43 points allowed

Playing at home against division rivals bound for the playoffs, the Giants are motivated to win in order to “prove” that they are a postseason-caliber team that simply had a rough start to the season.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC. They have every reason to bench their key players to give them a de facto bye before the playoffs and ensure they are as healthy as possible.

In Week 17 of 2016, when the Cowboys were locked into the No. 1 seed, Jason Garrett opted to rest his key players for most of the game, losing 27-13 on the road to the sub-.500 Eagles. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

With the Cowboys being a prime candidate to rest their starters, wide receiver Tavon Austin (groin) deserves a look. He's tentatively expected to return this week.

The Giants likely won’t rush back Odell Beckham Jr. (quad) for this meaningless game. The continued absence of Russell Shepard (ankle) could lead to more slot work for Sterling Shepard (hip), while the defense is dealing with injuries to defensive end Mario Edwards (hip), along with linebackers Alec Ogletree (concussion) and B.J. Goodson (foot).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS Edge: It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys play their starters for much/any of this game, which is shown in their 17.75 implied team total.

Meanwhile, Giants running back Saquon Barkley is trying to secure Offensive Rookie of the Year.

His 23.0 touches per game over the past six weeks rank third among all running backs, and Barkley's Ceiling Projection in our FantasyLabs Player Models leads all running backs by nearly 6.0 points.

It shouldn’t be difficult to find the salary to afford Barkley this week. —Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Giants -3 First Half

Like bowl season, motivation plays a key role in Week 17 of the NFL regular season.

Even though this a divisional game, the Cowboys will have their attention on their upcoming playoff game at home against Seattle (probably), not on the Giants, especially a week after clinching the NFC East at home.

The Cowboys and Garrett are saying the right things going into this week about motivation, but they’ve defeated New York three straight times, and I’ll wager on the fact that Dallas has bigger fish to fry.

Plus, if they show up early on, I’ll be looking for the Giants in the second half, whether it be the 2H spread or team total. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.