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Giants-Cowboys Betting Preview: Should Bettors Fade the Cowboys at Home?

Sep 16, 2018 12:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

  • Spread: Cowboys -3
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday Morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Trend to know: Are public bettors (finally) sick of betting the Cowboys? Dallas is receiving fewer than 50% of spread tickets at home against Giants at the time of writing (you can see the live betting info here).

Since we began tracking spread ticket percentages in 2003, the Cowboys have never started a season receiving fewer than the 50% of spread tickets in their first two games of the year.

In that span, the Cowboys are 44-53-4 against the spread (-11.4 units) when receiving less than the majority spreads bets`, including 23-30-4 ATS (-8.5 units) at home and 16-23-2 ATS (-7.9 units) against NFC East opponents. — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The Giants defensive line will likely be without Olivier Vernon again (ankle), and Janoris Jenkins’ status is uncertain after he left practice to attend to an unspecified personal matter (reportedly unrelated to his previous issues this summer).

Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard (back) appears to be good to go after getting in a full practice Thursday.

The Cowboys will likely be without defensive end Randy Gregory (concussion, knee) and center Travis Frederick (illness).

Safety Xavier Woods (hamstring) appears to be doubtful, but pass-rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (groin) is at least good to go after practicing in full Thursday. — Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30pm EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

Betting market: There have been a couple times this week when the Giants were available at +3.5, enticing nearly 70% of bettors to take the G-Men on the road at the time of writing.

Now, comfortably at +3, oddsmakers have yet to give the market a chance to take Dallas at -2.5.

It appears both public and sharp bettors are on the under, which is getting more than 60% of bets and dollars. The total has fallen from 43.5 to 42 since opening at BookMaker. — John Ewing

Trends to know:  Fading the Cowboys at home has treated bettors well over the past few seasons. Since Jason Garrett took over as head coach, the Boys are 23-36-1 (39%) ATS in Dallas, offering a 19% return on investment to bettors taking their opponents. — Danny Donahue

Over bettors were not pleased with the Giants or the Cowboys in Week 1, as both teams went under their total.

After each team participated in low-scoring games to start the season a majority of bets are on the under for Sunday night.

That could be a mistake as it has been profitable to bet the over when both teams go under in their previous game early in the season.

Since 2003, in the first four games of the season, the over is 93-56-1 (62%) when both teams went under in the game prior. — Ewing

DFS edge: Only Todd Gurley (94%), Ezekiel Elliott (92%) and James Conner (92%) played at least 90% of their offense’s snaps in Week 1. That said, Zeke had only 15 rush attempts last Sunday.

That was the first time since Week 2 last season that Elliott received fewer than 20 rushes.

The Cowboys will likely get back to feeding him the ball against a Giants team that finished 26th in rush DVOA last year, so expect Elliot to be chalky in Sunday Night Football showdown slates. — Joe Holka

Bet to watch: My trench report focuses heavily on this game. The under has hit the last four games, two fairly easily, and I’m betting on it continuing this weekend.

Both offensive lines are struggling and they play against two outstanding, even underrated defensive lines. Eli Manning is getting comfortable in the new offense under Shurmur and it will take some time before that offense clicks. — Geoff Schwartz


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott and Landon Collins

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