Rovell: Sportsbooks Clean Up on Sunday, Popular Favorites Go 0-5 ATS
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Teddy Bridgewater
The betting world is always looking forward, so we’re already working on the biggest betting stories in Week 4 in the NFL.
Sunday, 11:21 p.m. ET
That’s a wrap. The Saints (+2.5) won outright in a tight, low-scoring game against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. It was another good result for the books on Sunday.
Favorites went 4-9, with five most public favorites all failed to cover.
Biggest Week 4 Public Sides:
81%: Chiefs (-7) at DET ❌
76%: Patriots (-7) at BUF ❌
67%: Cowboys (-2.5) at NO ❌
66%: Texans (-5.5) vs. CAR ❌ pic.twitter.com/2c4ix4epMq
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 30, 2019
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET
Sunday has been a banner day for the sportsbooks. Three very popular teams, the Patriots, Chiefs and Rams failed to cover and the Bucs’ outright upset over the Rams as 9-point favorites killed off plenty of teasers and moneyline parlays behind the counter.
PointsBet also reported that most of their PointsBetting for the Bucs-Rams game were on the Under 48.5. The two teams combined to score 94 points. One bettor staked $50 a point, which means he lost by the 45 points. The max loss on the bet was 40 points in either direction, so the bettor took a $2,000 bath.
Thanks to the earlier results going their way, Sunday’s final game between the Cowboys and Saints, won’t be a huge decision for the guys in the desert. That being said, 61% of the tickets are Dallas to cover as 2.5-point favorites in New Orleans.
CG Technology did report that they took a $38,500 bet (to win $35,000) on New Orleans.
The Over/Under, which currently sits at 47.5, looks like it could be an interesting decision as 70% of bettors backed the Over. PointsBet reports 85% of the money at their shop is on the Over, as well.
Sunday, 4:20 p.m. ET
The Chiefs and Patriots were the two most popular NFL sides, according to our data, getting 81% and 76% of the betting tickets. They both win outright but failed to cover.
Since 2010, the Patriots are the only team in the NFL to have a cover rate of more than 60%. After today, they are 100-66-4 against the number (including postseason).
Sunday, 4:10 p.m. ET
Some big winners in the early games:
A bettor at FanDuel netted $25,968 on the Giants moneyline, while a bettor at at South Point netted $45,454 on Giants -3.
Big winners also include a bettor who netted $24,998 on Browns +7 and a Titans +4 wager that cashed $45,454.
A few of the biggest losers that we heard of on Sunday? The bettor (or bettors) who flooded the Redskins moneyline late with $95K worth of bets, and the bettor who threw a cool $53,000 on Houston -5.
Sunday, 12:55 p.m. ET
Just minutes prior to the 1 p.m. ET kicks, I got word of a few big bets at CG Technology:
- $53,000 on the Texans -5: If Houston covers a home favorites vs. Carolina, this bettor will take home $48K.
- $50,000 and $45,000 on Redskins moneyline: CG wouldn’t tell me if this was from the same bettor, but these wagers will pay out $75K and $63K, respectively, if Washington pulls a road upset over the Giants.
Sunday, noon ET
FanDuel has taken a $41,550 bet on Giants moneyline, would profit $25,968 if the G-Men beat the winless Redskins straight-up.
Sunday, 11:55 a.m. ET
A big parlay just came in at CG Technology: $45,000 on the moneylines for the Patriots, Chiefs and Texans. If all three teams win straight-up, this bettor would profit $14,000.
Sunday, 11 a.m. ET
Here are the most lopsided games at DraftKings:
- 94% of the money on Chiefs (-7) vs. Lions
- 89% of the money on Patriots (-7) vs. Bills
- 80% of the money on Giants (-3) vs. Redskins
Sunday, 10:45 a.m. ET
More sizable bets rolling in:
- Two $10,000 bets on Cardinals (+5.5) to net $9,520 at PointsBet.
- $10,000 on Chiefs (-6.5) to net $8,330 at the Westgate SuperBook.
- $10,000 on Bengals (+4) to net $9,520 at PointsBet.
- $9,000 on Jaguars (+3) to net $8,181 at PointsBet.
Sunday, 10:30 a.m. ET
I just caught up with Jeff Sherman at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas to get a rundown of sharp and public plays.
As usual, recreational bettors are on the Patriots (-7) against the Bills, the Chiefs (-7) against the Lions, the Rams (-9) against the Bucs and the Cowboys (-2.5) against the Saints. The Texans (-4.5) are also drawing public support against the Panthers.
The most interesting note he gave me is that they’ve taken sharp money on the Dolphins. Miami will look for its first cover of the season as 14.5-point home underdogs against the Chargers. The Dolphins have been on the move at DraftKings, moving down to +14 and back up to +15.5 between 7 and 10:30 a.m.
According to Sherman’s notes, it looks like Rams-Bucs and Cowboys-Saints will be Pros vs. Joes games as the sharps have taken the Bucs and Saints.
Other teams attracting smart money are the Titans (+3.5) vs. Atlanta, Vikings (+1) against Chicago, Raiders (+6.5) at Indianapolis and Jacksonville (+2.5) against Denver.
Sunday, 8:20 a.m. ET
The biggest NFL bets at the South Point in Vegas this week:
- Giants -3: $50,000 to win $45,454
- Titans +4: $50,000 to win $45,454
- Browns +7: $27,500 to win $24,998
- Broncos -3: $22,000 to win $19,998
Friday, 3:45 p.m. ET
- Chiefs-Lions game will be the biggest decision for most sportsbooks: The Lions are 2-0-1 on the season, but could really be winless if things hadn’t fallen their way. Huge amount of tickets are on the Chiefs -6.5 on the road, including a ton of parlays. “When you have a really exciting QB like Mahomes, the number almost doesn’t matter with the public,” Osterman said. “It’s exactly what happened with Aaron Rodgers.” The Chiefs are getting 80% of the money at PointsBet and 97% of the money at DraftKings.
- Patriots vs Bills is the biggest Public vs Sharp game this week: “We’ve added a little more juice on the Patriots -7, it’s now -120 so that we can keep the 7.5 away from the sharps,” said the Superbook’s Eric Osterman. At PointsBet, the Public vs Sharps can be seen by just looking at the numbers — 80% of the bets are on New England, but 75% of the money is Buffalo. DraftKings says 91% of the money bet on this game is on the Patriots. There’s even more of a lopsided money split at DraftKings on this game’s total of 42. The over is being pounded with 94% of the money.
- Dolphins reach new levels of bad: The Miami Dolphins joined a very elite club last week as they became only the second NFL team over the last 25 years that were underdogs of 18 points or more for at least two games in a season. They joined the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars in that club. The Dolphins were the first to be 18-point dogs in two consecutive games (18 versus the Patriots and 21.5 against the Cowboys) and the favorites covered — Pats by 43 and Cowboys by 3.5. Despite the hideous play, sportsbooks we’ve spoken to say it’s pretty quiet this week, as fading the Dolphins at 15.5 point dogs against the San Diego Chargers doesn’t seem like such easy money.
- Too much love for Danny Dimes: The Giants are holding steady as 3-point favorites despite the public hype train known as Daniel Jones. The public is liking this as the volume has contributed to 82% of the money at DraftKings siding with the Giants. But don’t expect the line to grow bigger. Osterman says there’s been chatter about the fact that many sharps have models that think the Redskins deserve more points than they are getting.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Just got word of a massive parlay that FanDuel took on Tuesday from a bettor who thinks he can predict all eight NFL division winners just three weeks into the season. This bettor put $2,100 on the following wager:
- Ravens to win AFC North (-155)
- Chiefs to win AFC Wet (-550)
- Patriots to win AFC East (-1300)
- Colts to win AFC South (+185)
- Cowboys to win NFC East (-180)
- Saints to win NFC South (-180)
- Packers to win NFC North (+120)
- Rams to win NFC West (-200)
If all of those bets come through, this bettor would profit $97,967.50. Here’s the ticket, which was confirmed by FanDuel as being authentic:
Thursday, 6:25 p.m. ET
We’ve got a good Thursday Night Football game for once, as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Green Bay as 4-point underdogs. Here are some betting nuggets of note leading into the game:
- Packers getting massive public love: 83% of the betting tickets at William Hill’s 100+ sportsbooks have come in on Green Bay as home favorites. But the Packers are getting slightly less dollars than tickets (17%), a sign that some of the larger wagers are hitting the Eagles.
- Bettors are all-in on a Davante Adams bounce-back game: The Packers’ star WR has started the season with 0 TDs in three games, but he’s getting 44% of the money bet on the Anytime TD Scorer prop (Yes, -106) at DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200. Unsurprisingly, people are also flocking to bet on Adams to score the first TD of the game at +725 odds. He’s getting the highest percentage of tickets (14%) and money (18%) on that prop.
- More Adams love: At William Hill, an incredible 83% of tickets and 96% of dollars are taking Over 6 Receptions for Adams vs. the Eagles porous secondary.
Tuesday, 1:21 p.m. ET
The Patriots failed to cover the 20.5-point spread against the New York Jets in Week 3, winning by only 16, thanks to a costly pick-six thrown by Patriots backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
So how rare is it that the Patriots don’t cover? Well, they are the best in the NFL by a wide margin.
Since 2010, only 11 NFL teams are better than 50 percent against the spread.
The top five:
- New England Patriots 100-65-4 (60.6%)
- Green Bay Packers 89-69-4 (56.3%)
- Cincinnati Bengals 81-64-7 (55.9%)
- Minnesota Vikings 82-65-4 (55.8%)
- Seattle Seahawks 87-69-6 (55.8%)
Tuesday, 11:57 a.m. ET
Bears WR Taylor Gabriel entered last night’s MNF game against the Redskins having scored just three touchdowns in his past 35 regular games. And yet, one DraftKings bettor in New Jersey wagered $5.49 on him to score 3 TDs in last night’s game alone. When Gabriel unexpectedly scored his third touchdown of the game, this bettor cashed his 250-1 ticket, profiting $1372.50.
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET
The markets have reacted in a big way to Daniel Jones’ debutante performance. The Giants’ rookie quarterback now finds himself as the sole favorite to be named the 2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at plenty of sportsbooks around the market, including several in New Jersey.
DraftKings moved Jones to +200 to win the award; FoxBet isn’t too far behind at +225. Arizona Cardinals quarterback and No. 1 overall draft pick Kyler Murray is the second favorite at both books.
The new Giants signal-caller, who took over for Eli Manning this week, led the team to an improbable, 32-31 come-back victory over the Tampa Buccaneers. Jones threw for 330 yards and accounted for four touchdowns (two rushing, two throwing) in the win and steered clear of bad mistakes in his pro debut.
The same Giants fans who were dismayed when Big Blue made the Duke product the No. 6 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft were quick to praise “Danny Dimes” for leading New York to its first win of the season.
DraftKings opened Jones at 33-1, as he sat behind Manning for the first two weeks. He dropped to 10-1 when he was named starter last Tuesday.
PointsBet had Jones at 20-1 to win the award two weeks ago, he’s since shortened to 3-1, making him the second favorite at their shop behind Murray, who is also the favorite at FanDuel.
There may not be any value in backing Jones to win Rookie of the Year, but one punter at PointsBet was so impressed with the 22-year-old that he or she placed $100 on Jones to win league MVP at 150-1 odds, it would pay $15,000.
A quick merchandise note on the Daniel Jones mania: Patrick Mahomes was the only player who sold more merchandise in the two hours after the Giants game ended yesterday.