Rovell: How Two Sharps’ Faith in Atlanta Changed Falcons-Panthers Line


Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Ryan.

Two of the sharpest bettors in Las Vegas walked into the SuperBook in Las Vegas on Friday and Saturday to bet the same team: the Atlanta Falcons.

Wait, what?

The team that is 0-4 and has failed to cover the spread in three of their first four games?

Yes, indeed. That is why the Falcons moved from -1 to -2.5 at the SuperBook for their Week 5 matchup against the Carolina Panthers.

“I’m surprised that anyone is willing to put their taxed income on Dan Quinn’s team at this point,” the SuperBook’s John Murray said. “But these guys are two of our sharpest players, and they move our lines regardless of how much money they throw down.”

The Action Network PRO REPORT getting a similar vibe, as the sharps and the money are on the birds.

Check out our new NFL PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

Speaking of teams that bettors are surprisingly on this week, what’s up with the Cleveland Browns?

The Browns started last season as America’s darlings, and when Cleveland disappointed bettors, the people turned on them.

To the start this season, the public hated them. Now? They love the Browns in a near pick’em game against the Indianapolis Colts, who very well could have started the season 4-0.

While our PRO REPORT shows that 54 percent of the tickets are on the Browns, an absurd 88 percent of the money is on Cleveland. Yes, Cleveland has won three in a row, but those wins were against the Bengals, Washington Football team and Cowboys.

“We see the same theme here,” Murray said. “Big money is on the Browns and I’m kind of surprised.”

In general, the public loves to bet the favorites and the overs. The over, which has been the way to go through the first four weeks, has hit in 36 of 64 games (57.1 percent). Games have been over by an average of 3.87 points per game, which is actually significant.

Last week, the numbers started to get more refined as overs hit in 50 percent of games in Week 4. The under took the first game of Week 5 in the Bears’ win on Thursday night over the Buccaneers.

Week 5 has seven totals at 50 points or more.

“On Sunday, the tourists come in and they love betting those overs,” Murray said. “But I can tell you that the numbers we are seeing now are starting to scare off the regulars around here.”

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