Broncos-Raiders MNF Betting Preview: Back Oakland as a Trendy Dog?

Betting odds: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

• Spread: Broncos -3
• Over/Under: 43
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN

Betting market: Believe it or not, Oakland is a trendy dog after losing to Jeff Driskel and Cincinnati by two touchdowns a week ago.

The Raiders are getting 56% of bets as a 3-point home underdog as of writing (see live data here), and have even received multiple waves of sharp support that caused the line to drop to +2.5 for a stretch of this week.

Then again, Denver also saw some sharp action at -2.5 that has caused the line to return to the opening line of -3.

The over/under has dropped from 45 to 43 as wet and windy conditions could be in store. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Division games tend to be more competitive due to increased familiarity among opponents, which often leads to lower scoring.

Thus it has been profitable to bet the under in division games. The optimal strategy is to target games in Week 11 or later with totals of more than 44 points. — John Ewing

Metrics that matter: The Broncos and Raiders are the 21st- and 29th-ranked offenses, respectively, in points per game. Both teams scored just 16 points in losses last week.

Since 2003, when two teams score 16 or fewer points the week before playing in prime time (including playoffs), the over is 38-27-1 (58.5%).

But in the past three seasons, it's the under that's 7-2 in this spot, going under the total by 4.7 points per game, including 5-1 in divisional games. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? History is on the line in what could be the Raiders' last game in Oakland. Between 1970-1995, the Raiders won their first 12 home games on Monday Night Football, losing their first to John Elway and the Broncos in 1996.

Since starting 12-0 straight-up on MNF at home, the Raiders are 3-9, losing seven straight dating back to their last win in 2002, the season they made the Super Bowl.

During that span, the Raiders are 1-6 against the spread at home on MNF, failing to cover by 13.7 points per game. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Broncos' Run Offense vs. Raiders' Run Defense

With a depleted receiving group — Demaryius Thomas traded, Emmanuel Sanders' season-ending injury and numerous tight end injuries — the Broncos' past two opponents, Cleveland and San Francisco, dared them to win through the air, which they simply couldn't do.

Well, I don’t think the Raiders — who allow 4.8 yards per carry (24th in the league) — have the personnel to take away the Broncos' elite rushing attack, which ranks second in the league with 5.0 yards per rush.

We saw Oakland in a similar matchup last week in Cincy against a decimated passing offense, but the Bengals were still able to hand the ball off to Joe Mixon 27 times for 129 yards and two touchdowns.

Even if the Raiders again key on the run, I don't think they can stop Phillip Lindsay, whose 5.4 yards per rush ranks second among all running backs (min. 100 attempts), trailing only Aaron Jones. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Raiders

The Raiders' brutal defense could be without three starters: Rookie defensive tackle Maurice Hurst (ankle) and cornerbacks Gareon Conley (concussion) and Daryl Worley (shoulder).

The Broncos have two questionable players: Tight end Matt LaCosse (ankle) and outside linebacker Shane Ray (illness). Cornerback Brendan Langley has already been ruled out while linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee) and Courtland Sutton (quad) will play, but don't seem to be at 100%. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge:The Broncos have been abysmal against tight ends over the past six weeks, allowing a league-high 10.77 yards per attempt and 94.80 receiving yards per game to the position, per Sports Info Solutions.

More importantly, Jared Cook has been the most heavily utilized player through the air for the Raiders, seeing 22% of their target share since Week 10 while everyone else is lower than 17%. Cook is still at an appealing price tag on FanDuel at $6,000. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Broncos -3

The Raiders took down the Steelers two weeks ago and the betting market has given Oakland some credit since then. While the upset over Pittsburgh was impressive, you can easily conclude that the Raiders are still a terrible football team when you look at the whole body of work.

Divisional games, home dogs and all those other scenarios can be thrown out the window, in my opinion. The Bet Labs model has the Broncos favored by 5.5 points in this game, so I'll gladly take it at the key number of -3. — Travis Reed

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.