Lions-Cardinals Betting Preview: Ride with Arizona as a Home Dog off Its Big Win?

Lions-Cardinals Betting Preview: Ride with Arizona as a Home Dog off Its Big Win? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Matthew Stafford, Patrick Peterson

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

  • Spread: Lions -3
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Even though the Cardinals’ win over the Packers just bounced Mike McCarthy out of Green Bay, the public isn’t backing Arizona as home dogs to the lowly Lions.

Just 41% of bets and a measly 22% of money is on the Cardinals as of writing (see live data here), which has moved them from +1.5 to +3 since opening. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Games with low over/unders of 44 or fewer points are more likely to go over their totals.

Since 2003, the over in these games is 1,200-1,116-45 (52%). It’s even more profitable to bet the over in such games if its a non-division matchup and wind won’t be a factor, like Lions-Cardinals. John Ewing

The Lions are coming off a three-game home stand in which they went 1-2 straight-up and against the spread, with a big loss to their NFC North rival Bears.

Matthew Stafford is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in his first road game coming off at least a three-game home stand, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.5 points. Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Lions offense has gone missing in their past two games, scoring 16 points each against the Rams and Bears. With Stafford at quarterback, many would assume that the Lions would score and cover.

When the Lions have scored fewer than 17 points in consecutive games, they’re 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS with Stafford, losing his past three games SU in this spot since 2015. Abrams

Biggest mismatch and DFS edge: Cardinals’ Offensive Line vs. Lions’ Pass Rush

The Lions will take on a Cardinals team that has four of its five starters on injured reserve and released starting right tackle Andre Smith a few weeks ago. Overall, the Cardinals have struggled to protect their quarterback, ranking 23rd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

This spot sets up well for the Lions defense considering the Cardinals are implied for 19 points and Detroit’s defensive line ranks second in adjusted sack rate and is taking on an offensive line that doesn’t have a Week 1 starter.

Detroit’s defense carries a top-two median projection both DraftKings and FanDuel for this week’s main slate. Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals’ offensive line remains a bit of a mess, and now left tackle Korey Cunningham (hip) is also banged up. The defense is dealing with injuries to linebacker Deone Bucannon (chest), safety Budda Baker (knee) and defensive end Markus Golden (knee), but the team is at least expected to welcome back wide receiver Chad Williams (ankle).

The Lions aren’t quite as healthy. The offense is dealing with injuries to Stafford (back), running back Kerryon Johnson (knee), tight end Michael Roberts (shoulder) along with receivers Kenny Golladay (quad), Bruce Ellington (back) and Brandon Powell (calf).

The defense isn’t exactly 100%, either, as No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay (ankle), defensive end Ezekiel Ansah (neck) and linebacker Devon Kennard (hip) should be considered questionable for Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Cardinals +3

The Cardinals are coming off a huge upset over the Packers at Lambeau, but if lack of preparation on Green Bay’s behalf is your angle for not taking Arizona off its win, I think you’re looking at it the wrong way. That game was more about the Packers, who “played down” to their opponent.

Bettors continue to fade the Cardinals, backing a favored Lions team on the road with an offense that looks broken with a laundry list of injuries.

The Lions’ pass defense ranks dead last in short passing game according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Cardinals should have success with Josh Rosen, who has the luxury of flipping it to David Johnson, which is especially nice against a defense that’s 20th vs. running backs in the passing game (per DVOA).

Usually a team that wins as a big underdog will get the majority ticket count the next week, but with bettors fading the Cards at home, I think the value has flipped to Arizona after opening between a 1- and 2-point home dog. Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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