Lions-Bills Betting Preview: Two Bad Teams, One Low Total

Dec 16, 2018 01:15 AM EST

Rich Barnes, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

  • Spread: Bills -2.5
  • Over/Under: 39.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: The Bills are surprisingly seeing an onslaught of cash money. The line opened at a PK, but Buffalo moved to -2.5 and briefly hit -3 before some buyback on the Lions pushed it back down to -2.5.

The over has been a very popular and sharp pick, which is also pretty surprising. With more than 70% of bets and 88% of dollars at the time of writing, the total has risen from 38 to 39.5 since opening (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Bills have a worse record but are the betting favorites. Since 2003, teams with a losing record favored against an opponent with more wins have gone 246-214-14 (54%) against the spread, including 163-136-11 (55%) ATS when facing a non-divisional opponent. — John Ewing

What a bad spot this is for Matthew Stafford and the Lions…

Detroit defeated Arizona, 17-3, last week for its third double-digit win of the season. In Stafford’s career, he has played 25 games coming off a double-digit win, and he is 7-16-2 ATS (30.4%), failing to cover the spread by 4.2 PPG and losing bettors 8.9 units.

In this spot, Stafford is the second-least profitable QB in the Bet Labs database, ahead of just Matt Hasselbeck. — Evan Abrams

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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