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Lions-49ers Betting Preview: Time to Buy Low on Detroit?

Sep 14, 2018 7:39 AM EDT

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -6
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The 49ers — and particularly Jimmy Garoppolo — did not look great in their debut against Minnesota. But they looked a whole lot better than the Lions.

With that said, more than 70% of bettors are on the Niners at the time of writing (you can find live data here) and they’ve moved to -6.5 at some books. — Mark Gallant

Injury watch: The only questions for the Lions are in the trenches, as guard T.J. Lang (back) and pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah (shoulder) are questionable for Sunday.

The 49ers’ defensive backs K’Waun Williams (rib), Ahkello Witherspoon (ankle), Adrian Colbert (hamstring) and Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder), along with linebacker Malcolm Smith (hamstring), have been less than 100% at practice this week, while the team placed starting LB Brock Coyle (concussion) on IR.

On offense, receiver Marquise Goodwin (quad) is out, and guards Mike Person (ankle) and Joshua Garnett (foot) are unlikely to suit up Sunday. Reuben Foster will serve the final game of his two-game suspension, as well. — Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30pm EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

DFS edge: George Kittle turned himself into Jimmy G’s favorite target with Goodwin (quad) playing just 26% of the snaps in Week 1, and at the time of writing it sounds like Goodwin may be inactive for Week 2.

Kittle finished last week leading the 49ers in targets (nine), receptions (five), and receiving yards (90). Now he gets an easier matchup against a Lions team that allowed 6.6 targets and 55.9 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends in 2017.

Kittle is an elite value play on DraftKings and FanDuel with his top-five median projection.Justin Bailey

Trends to know: Since 2003, teams that lose at home by 20 or more points and are listed as underdogs in their next game are 114-93-3 ATS (+13.3 units), including 106-82-3 ATS (+16.5 units) as an underdog of a field goal or more. — Evan Abrams

Did you know: In the NFL, a six-point margin tends to be a key number when it comes to final scores. In his career, Matthew Stafford has been at least a 6-point underdog 22 times and he is 3-19 straight-up and 7-14-1 ATS (-7.4 units).

Since Stafford was drafted in 2009, only one quarterback has been less profitable in this spot than the former Georgia quarterback (Chad Henne, 6-13 ATS). — Evan Abrams

Bet to watch: Lions

The Lions looked absolutely dreadful in Week 1, and I don’t really like anything about their team. I’m also very low on their head coach Matt Patricia, who I grade at the bottom of the league along with Hue Jackson.

That said, this is the NFL. Most teams aren’t as bad or as good as they look when everything goes wrong or right in one specific game.

This is a perfect buy-low opportunity and the line is starting to get out of hand, which I always love in the NFL — especially if you can grab it at 7.

It comes with a caveat, however: Keep an eye on the status of both Ansah and Lang. If you learn they’re good after Friday’s practice reports, I could make an argument for +6 and would 100% hit +7. — Stuckey


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matthew Stafford

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