D.J. Moore Prop Pick: Where to Find the Betting Value on His 2020 Receptions Total
Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore Prop Pick for 2020
- Under 94.5 Receptions [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
D.J. Moore is one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers in the game. Last season, he finished ninth in receptions among WRs, and that was despite missing nearly two full games due to injury.
Moore will enter Year 3 at just 23 years of age, and we can assume he hasn’t hit his peak yet. However, a few key additions to the Panthers offense may prevent him from seeing the number of targets needed to snag 95-plus receptions.
Teddy Bridgewater will be the Panthers’ Week 1 starter, which should bring the offense more stability after having to turn to Kyle Allen for most of 2019. Their defense lost a handful of key players this offseason — including Luke Kuechly to retirement — which should force the offense to stay uptempo and throw more.
As of now, I’m projecting Bridgewater to throw for 263.5 yards per game and the Panthers for a total of 4,200 yards through the air this year. So how many of those will go to Moore?
Let’s start with the running backs.
Christian McCaffrey is in a tier of his own when it comes to target share — we can expect CMC to finish with somewhere between 100 and 115 receptions. It’s also worth noting that Bridgewater was a checkdown machine to his RBs in his six starts for the Saints last season.
The WR corps, meanwhile, will look a bit different.
The Panthers have lost Jarius Wright and Chris Hogan, but added Robby Anderson, Seth Roberts and Pharoh Cooper. Anderson will command a more significant target share than we saw from the Panthers WR2-3 slot last year as opposing defenses will need to worry about CMC around the line of scrimmage, and Anderson will be a deep threat who keeps the defense honest. This should open up things for Moore, who operates in the more intermediate part of the field. But that should help his receiving yardage, not his receptions.
The TE group will be without Greg Olsen, who signed with the Seahawks, which means Ian Thomas should step into Olsen’s role. But Thomas, Chris Manhertz and Seth DeValve will command fewer targets as a group than we would typically project for the Panthers.
After factoring everything in, I ended up with 80 projected receptions for 1,050 receiving yards and and 5.6 touchdowns for Moore.