D.K. Metcalf NFL Combine Prop Bet: Too Jacked to Run the 40-Yard Dash in Under 4.5?
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ole Miss Rebels wide receiver D.K. Metcalf (14)
- All eyes will be on Indianapolis this week as prospects try to help their draft stock at the 2019 NFL Combine.
- We've got picks on various performance props, including Ole Miss wide receiver D.K. Metcalf's 40-yard dash time.
The 2019 NFL Combine here and sportsbooks have released performance props. Our staff will be making official picks for prop bets on a number of different prospects, including wide receiver D.K. Metcalf.
Here’s the workout schedule for the various position groups:
- Friday: Running backs, offensive linemen, kickers, special teams
- Saturday: Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
- Sunday: Defensive linemen, linebackers
- Monday: Defensive backs
Now let’s dig into the Metcalf prop on the market as of writing, as well as our analysis based on research and official combine data going back to 2006.
Metcalf chose to forgo his final two years of eligibility at Ole Miss to enter the 2019 NFL Draft, in which he has a chance to go in the first round.
He posted an explosive 18.3 yards per reception to go along with 14 touchdowns on 67 career catches at Ole Miss. But at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, should we feel comfortable betting the under on the 40-yard dash prop of a Luke Caged-out Metcalf?
D.K. Metcalf 40-Yard Dash Time
- Over 4.50 seconds: -115
- Under 4.50 seconds: -115
Even before pictures of a bulked-up Metcalf dwarfing his peers began circulating on DraftTwitter and raising questions about his speed, the odds were against Metcalf running the 40 in 4.5 flat or better.
Since 2000, there have been 25 wide receivers listed at 230 or more pounds who have participated in the 40-yard dash at the combine, and only nine (36.0%) have run a 4.50 or better.
Even if we look at only those who went on to be drafted in the first two rounds, the under would have gone 4-for-10. Two of those nine were top-three overall picks in Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson — an overly optimistic forecast for Metcalf.
Scouting website WalterFootball.com projects Metcalf to run a 4.58, which is another sign that this line is aggressive. Metcalf has smooth strides that cover a lot of ground fast, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he got down to the low 4.5s. But as long as the over isn’t juiced up too much, it makes sense to bet that Metcalf is too juiced up to finish under 4.5.
THE PICK: Over 4.50 seconds (up to -120)
More 2019 NFL Combine Props
- 2019 NFL Combine Props: What Will Be the Fastest 40-Yard Dash?
- 2019 NFL Combine Prop: Rich Eisen 40-Yard Dash
- Kyler Murray NFL Combine Prop Bets: 40-Yard Time and Vertical Jump
- Josh Jacobs NFL Combine Prop Bets: Over/Under 4.5 Seconds in 40-Yard Dash?
- Greedy Williams NFL Combine Prop Bet: Over/Under 4.36-Second 40 for Draft’s Best Corner?
- 2019 NFL Combine Prop Bet: Will A Player’s Nike Shoe Break?
Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.