Best Dolphins-Texans TNF Prop Bets: Deshaun Watson Over/Under 23.5 Rushing Yards?

Best Dolphins-Texans TNF Prop Bets: Deshaun Watson Over/Under 23.5 Rushing Yards? article feature image

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson

  • There are two player props offering betting value in the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans.
  • This piece will analyze the following prop bets: Deshaun Watson over/under 23.5 rushing yards and DeAndre Hopkins over/under 5.5 receptions.

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Miami Dolphins-Houston Texans matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network and Fox.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props, along with the player props tool at FantasyLabs.

>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 8 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Texans QB Deshaun Watson

The pick: Over 23.5 rushing yards (+140 at 5Dimes)

The Dolphins are the NFL’s 28th-slowest paced team in neutral situations according to Football Outsiders, so volume is a concern. But getting a +140 value on a rushing prop for Watson looks like a home run.

His 6.1 carries and 30.9 rushing yards per game are second and fifth in the NFL, respectively, at the quarterback position.

According to our projected offensive plays metric at FantasyLabs, Houston still has the sixth-highest expectation of Week 8 (63.2). Perhaps we should focus on the Texans’ up-tempo style — they’re the eighth-fastest in neutral pace — and take the value with Watson in a perceived suboptimal situation.

Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins

The pick: Over 5.5 receptions (+110 at 5Dimes)

For a lot of the same peripheral reasons it makes sense to be long on Watson and the Texans, I’m on Nuk as another solid value prop on Thursday night.

The Dolphins have hemorrhaged yards after catch this season — a category in which both Hopkins and Will Fuller are top 25 in the NFL — so it would make sense for the Texans’ game plan to funnel Nuk targets through crossing routes in the short-intermediate game.

After making it through the gauntlet of Tre’Davious White and Jalen Ramsey over the past two weeks, Hopkins will likely get back to double-digit targets. Regardless, he’s averaging 6.7 receptions per game this season, the sixth-most in the NFL, so this line looks pretty egregious.

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