Dolphins vs. Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks: Hold Your Nose, Grab the Points

Dolphins vs. Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks: Hold Your Nose, Grab the Points article feature image

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott

Dolphins at Cowboys Betting Odds

  • Odds: Cowboys -21.5
  • Total: 47
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Apparently getting 19 points wasn’t enough last week for the Dolphins, who got steamrolled 43-0 by the Patriots. The public is all over their opponent yet again this week, and the line has been driven up over 21.

Read below to see Sean Koerner’s projected odds for this game and how he’s betting it, along with notable betting systems, mismatches to know and more.

Dolphins-Cowboys Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

Dolphins WR Albert Wilson (calf) was out last week and continues to miss practice, so he appears to be trending downward for his Week 3 status.

The Cowboys are taking a big hit in their secondary with S Xavier Woods (ankle) expected to miss four to six weeks. Additionally, they’ll be without Michael Gallup (knee), which will open the door for WR Devin Smith to get in more reps. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -18.5
  • Projected Total: 46.5

We have two teams favored by 20 or more points this week: The Cowboys and Patriots.

NFL teams that have been favored by 17 or more points are 6-15 against the spread all time. But despite that, sportsbooks are undoubtedly getting hammered with action on both favorites and would like both underdogs to cover.

What makes it even harder for people to back these underdogs is the recency bias of the Patriots making the 19-point spread against the Dolphins appear way too conservative. Part of sports betting is being willing to gamble on spreads like this simply being way too high.

Even with Josh Rosen taking over under center for the Dolphins, I’m going to bite the bullet and take them and Jets knowing full well they’re terrible teams, but that the imaginary points we’re assigning these games have been inflated enough that books know both are more likely to cover than not. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys’ Run Offense vs. Dolphins’ Run Defense

The Cowboys consistently have one of the best ground games in the league. In each of the past three seasons, Ezekiel Elliott has led the NFL in rushing yards per game — 108.7, 98.3 and 95.6 — and Dak Prescott is an above-average runner both on designed plays and as a scrambler.

As massive home favorites, the Cowboys should run all over the Dolphins, who are in full-on tank mode. In Weeks 1-2, they allowed an NFL-record 102 points. Gone from last year’s front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn, tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. Meanwhile, the Cowboys offensive line is better than it was last year thanks to the return of All-Pro center Travis Frederick (Guillain-Barre Syndrome) and the development of second-year left guard Connor Williams.

Through two weeks, the Cowboys have a 100% success rate on power runs, and the Dolphins on defense have a league-worst stuffed run rate of 12% (per Football Outsiders). The running game that can’t be stopped is facing the stop unit that can’t stop sucking.

Through two weeks, the Dolphins have allowed an NFL-high 391 yards and four touchdowns rushing — and the Cowboys have a great offensive line and a running back who just signed a $90 million contract extension.

The Dolphins defense will be defenseless against the Cowboys running game. Matthew Freedman

PRO System Match

The Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 during the team’s 0-2 start. Miami failed to score against New England in Week 2 and totaled fewer than 200 yards of offense.

Even as a 21.5-point underdog, few bettors want to back the Fins. Only 18% of gamblers are taking the points with Miami in Dallas as of writing (see live public betting data here). This could be a mistake.

Historically, it’s been profitable to buy low on teams after a bad offensive performance.

Since 2003, teams getting less than 30% of bets after scoring fewer than 10 points have gone 147-94-4 (61%) against the spread in their next game. A $100 bettor would be up $4,438 following this Pro SystemJohn Ewing

Expert Pick

Ewing: Dolphins +21.5

Bettors are fading the Dolphins. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Cowboys -21.5. Miami has lost its first two games by 40 points each; few expect the Fins to win this game. But covering is a different story.

It won’t be pretty, but here are three reasons I’m backing the Dolphins:

  • Since 2003, underdogs of 20 or more points are 5-0 ATS.
  • The Dolphins are 0-2 ATS, and underdogs that failed to cover the spread in Weeks 1-2 have gone 52-33 ATS in Week 3.
  • According to our NFL power ratings, the spread for this game should be Cowboys -18.5.

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