Dwayne Haskins NFL Combine Prop Bets: 40-Yard Dash and Vertical Jump
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins (7)
- All eyes will be on Indianapolis this week as prospects try to help their draft stock at the 2019 NFL Combine.
- We've got picks on various performance props, including Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins' 40-yard dash time and vertical jump.
The 2019 NFL Combine is here and sportsbooks have released performance props. Our staff will be making official picks for prop bets on a number of different prospects, including quarterback Dwayne Haskins.
Here’s the workout schedule for the various position groups:
- Friday: Running backs, offensive linemen, kickers, special teams
- Saturday: Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
- Sunday: Defensive linemen, linebackers
- Monday: Defensive backs
Now let’s dig into the Haskins props that are on the market as of writing, as well as our analysis based on research and official combine data going back to 2006.
After finishing third in Heisman Trophy voting in 2018, the Ohio State quarterback is expected to be a top-10 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Haskins showed more as a passer than as an athlete in his two-year career as a Buckeye, going 413-of-590 (70.0%) passing for 5,396 yards (9.1 yards per attempt), 50 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while rushing for only 108 yards on 79 carries (1.4 yards per carry).
Should we bet on Haskins underperforming at the 2019 NFL combine?
Will Dwayne Haskins Run the 40-Yard Dash in Over/Under 4.80 Seconds?
- Over 4.80 seconds: -115
- Under 4.80 seconds: -115
Haskins is listed at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. Dating back to 2000, similarly sized quarterbacks (6-foot-2 to 6-foot-4, 215-225 pounds) have run a 4.81 on average, so on the surface, this line seems like a toss-up.
However, a negative correlation (-0.61) exists between 40 time and vertical for quarterbacks in that height/weight range, and Haskins’ projected vertical per the betting lines is 29.5, which is 7% below average. (Maybe what Stephen A. Smith meant to say was Haskins was more of a runner than a jumper?)
Given the correlation between running fast and jumping high, the odds are against Haskins posting an above-average 40-time. There are also other reasons to expect him to run the 40 at a below-average clip; for instance, Matthew Freedman points out that we tend to see a correlation between 40-time and yards per rush, and Haskins’ career mark is all of 1.9.
Add it all up and over 4.80 is the better bet.
THE PICK: Over 4.80 seconds (up to -120)
Will Dwayne Haskins Post a Vertical Jump Over/Under 29.5 Inches?
- Over 29.5 inches: -115
- Under 29.5 inches: -115
Whereas the odds are against Haskins posting an above-average 40-time if we expect him to produce a below-average vertical jump, it’s a lot more feasible to expect him to post a below-average 40 time and still post a vertical jump above the 25th percentile, which is essentially what this line equates to.
In fact, if the line was 29.5 for every quarterback that fit Haskins’ size profile and went on to be drafted, betting the over would have produced a record of 31-12-5 (64.6%) since 2000.
While we shouldn’t expect him to tear up the combine, a motivated Haskins should be able to at least match the likes of Andy Dalton and John Beck in vertical jumping ability.
THE PICK: Over 29.5 inches (up to -120)
More 2019 NFL Combine Props
- 2019 NFL Combine Props: What Will Be the Fastest 40-Yard Dash?
- 2019 NFL Combine Prop: Rich Eisen 40-Yard Dash
- Josh Jacobs: Over/Under 4.5 Seconds in 40-Yard Dash?
- Greedy Williams: Over/Under 4.36-Second 40 for Draft’s Best Corner?
- Betting Kyler Murray’s 40-Yard Dash and Vertical Jump
- 2019 NFL Combine Prop Bets: Nick Bosa Bench Press & 40-Yard Dash
- 2019 NFL Combine Prop Bet: Will A Player’s Nike Shoe Break?
Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.