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Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Targets for Week 11: Snag Anthony Miller While You Still Can

Nov 14, 2018 11:59 PM EST
  • Ryan Collinsworth breaks down his best fantasy football waiver wire claims for Week 11, from handcuffs to top streaming quarterbacks and more.
  • Bears WR Anthony Miller has seen a major uptick in targets since Week 7. He translated that to 23.2 PPR points in Week 10.
  • Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is an enticing streaming option due to his rushing floor and his matchup vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense.

We have six teams on byes in Week 11: The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Expect heated competition on waivers as many look to stream replacements for bye-week players.

But not to worry. Each week I break down top waiver-wire targets to help your fantasy team navigate byes, injuries, suspensions, running-back committees and probably some relationship problems along the way.

Below, I’ll highlight players who are owned in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues and recommend an auction price (in parentheses) for each player for leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget system (which I highly recommend, by the way). All recommendations are made based on a $100 FAAB budget.

It’s Cuffing Season

In life there are few absolute certainties: Death, taxes and fantasy football injuries. In this section, I highlight players to target on waivers when top players inevitably get hurt or suspended.

Mike Davis, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($16)

Chris Carson missed the Seahawks’ Week 10 matchup against the Rams due to a thigh injury, and his status for Week 11 is questionable. So long as Carson continues to miss time, Davis remains a viable starting running back in all formats.

Week 10 saw Davis rush 11 times for 58 yards, and he also caught four passes for 22 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Fellow running back Rashaad Penny also got into the mix, rushing 12 times for 108 yards and a touchdown. However, Penny did not receive a single pass target in the game.

Davis has now recorded 17.7 and 18.0 PPR points the past two weeks, averaging seven pass targets. Even when splitting time with Carson from Weeks 4-9, Davis was the 25th-ranked running back in PPR formats. So, Davis should still flirt with flex-level fantasy production if the backfield returns to being a committee when Carson inevitably returns for Seattle.

Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Davis

Josh Reynolds, WR, Los Angeles Rams ($10)

Rams WR Cooper Kupp tore his ACL in Week 10, ending the talented receiver’s breakout season and vaulting Reynolds back into fantasy consideration.

When Kupp missed time in Weeks 7 and 8 due to a (different) knee injury, Reynolds earned the lion’s share of snaps, replacing him in 3-wide sets. He posted a poor 1-19-0 receiving line in Week 7 but busted out with three receptions for 42 yards and two touchdowns on five targets in Week 8.

The Rams run “11” personnel (aka 3-wide) on 94% of their snaps, which leads the NFL by a wide margin. Schematically, it affords Todd Gurley fewer eight-man box looks, which helps soften run defenses for the All-Pro running back.

With that in mind, Reynolds’ elevation to starting status would assuredly result in hefty snaps totals to maintain Sean McVay’s offensive scheme. His median projection is still hard to determine based on a very small sample size, but he’s definitely worth a speculative add this week for his projected snaps total alone.

Frank Gore, RB, Miami Dolphins ($9)

The 35-year old veteran rushed for 90 yards against the Packers this week and added two receptions for 12 yards on three targets. Fellow running back Kenyan Drake exited and re-entered the game due to a shoulder injury.

Drake’s injury occurred during practice this week, and he was a limited participant in the Dolphins’ practice on Friday. He reaggravated the injury in the first half, which raises concerns over his status moving forward.

The Dolphins have made it clear in recent weeks that Gore is their early-down back, whereas Drake has been primarily relegated to receiving duties. Even with that division of roles, Drake has put up starter-worthy fantasy performances due to his receiving usage and big-play ability.

If Drake misses time for the already heavily injured Dolphins, that could open the door for Gore to finally seize fantasy relevance this season. He should inherit a substantial portion of Drake’s 5.2 targets per game, which would elevate Gore’s fantasy floor, especially in PPR formats.

The Dolphins are on bye for Week 11, but Gore may still be worth a speculative add contingent on Drake’s reported status early this week. Consider spending modestly to acquire him.

Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Frank Gore

Top Streaming Quarterback

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys ($2)

Despite contending with the Eagles’ No. 1-ranked pass rush, Prescott turned in yet another top-10 fantasy quarterback showing this week. He threw for 270 yards and a touchdown and added a crucial rushing touchdown, resulting in a healthy 21.7 PPR points.

Prescott has made this list several times already this year, and he has seriously turned it on in the past several weeks. Since Week 6, he boasts a 6:1 touchdown to interception ratio and has rushed for three touchdowns in four games played. He now draws a dream matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who just got smacked 28-16 by the Cleveland Browns.

In previous weeks, I’ve harped endlessly on how the bad the Falcons defense is, so I’ll spare you another rant. Instead, I’ll let the numbers do the talking:

Through Week 10, the Falcons have the third-worst Team Defense DVOA (19.4%), fifth-worst Pass Defense DVOA (20.8%), and second-worst Run Defense DVOA (7.1%).

Given Prescott’s rushing floor and this excellent matchup, he’s an ideal streaming candidate for Week 11.


Top Streaming Tight End

Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5)

McDonald is a borderline TE1 each week. He’s not particularly exceptional by any particular metric, but he boasts consistent fantasy production for a Steelers offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game (314.2).

He put up a solid 4-44-1 receiving line on four targets in Week 10. That stat line translates to 14.4 PPR fantasy points, which was good for fourth among tight ends (not including the Monday Night Football game between the 49ers and the Giants).

What makes him my top streaming tight end this week is his matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are 3-6, and rank dead last in the AFC South after losing five straight games.

They also just gave up a monster day to Colts TE Eric Ebron, who snared three passes for 69 yards and two touchdowns while also adding a touchdown on the ground. Including Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle, Colts tight ends combined for eight receptions for 133 yards and four total touchdowns against Jacksonville this week. Yikes.

Entering Week 10, Jacksonville ranked 18th in Pass Defense DVOA vs. tight ends (4.7%), and that stat should fall even further after this week’s disastrous performance. Look for McDonald and the Steelers to take advantage against an uncharacteristically soft Jaguars squad in Week 11.

Buy and Hold

The following players with season-long upside deserve immediate roster consideration.

Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears ($15)

Miller made this list last week for good reason: his targets, receptions and receiving yardage have all seen major upticks since Week 7, as he has taken full advantage of injuries to Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel.

This week he torched the Lions for 122 yards and a touchdown on his way to a career-high 23.2 PPR points. Of note, Gabriel returned from a knee injury in this game, but failed to record a catch on his three targets. You have to wonder how much that knee injury continues to bother him, especially as a speedy deep field-stretcher.

No matter what Gabriel’s true status is, Miller seems to have eclipsed him as QB Mitch Trubisky’s No. 2 target behind Robinson. Miller has receiving touchdowns in four of his past eight games, and his stock continues to point upward.

He draws a nice matchup against a middling Vikings defense for Week 11; but more importantly, his rest-of-season fantasy upside has never been higher. If you didn’t snag him off waivers last week, don’t hesitate in spending up to acquire him now.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars ($8)

Moncrief may be a new-comer to our waiver wire recommendations, but he has been a mainstay on our watch list all season. Jacksonville’s wide receiver corps has been inconsistent throughout the year, and it has been difficult to predict which Jags receiver could pop in any given week.

Nonetheless, Moncrief has begun to separate himself as QB Blake Bortles’ preferred target, while fellow WR Keelan Cole has all but faded to obscurity. Dede Westbrook consistently draws more targets per game, but Moncrief has converted those targets into actual yardage with more regularity.

Take a look at his receiving production since Week 4:

  • Week 4: 5 rec, 109 yds, 1 TD (5 targets)
  • Week 5: 6 rec, 76 yds (15 targets)
  • Week 6: 0 rec, 0 yds (3 targets) – Ouch.
  • Week 7: 7 rec, 76 yds (10 targets)
  • Week 8: 4 rec, 54 yds (7 targets)
  • Week 9: BYE
  • Week 10: 3 rec, 98 yds, 1 TD (4 targets)

Even with his Week 6 dud, Moncrief still boasts the most consistent fantasy production of any Jaguars receiver and deserves to be rostered as a matchup-dependent fantasy WR3. He faces an average Steelers defense in Week 11  and offers a nice blend of floor and upside if you’re dealing with major bye week issues.

Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Donte Moncrief (10).

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7)

Godwin has been on and off this list all year, but that’s what happens when you’re the No. 2/3 wide receiver in an offense that spreads the ball around as much as the Bucs do.

Through nine games, Godwin has finished as a fantasy WR2 three weeks, WR3 three weeks, and scored outside the top-36 three weeks.

Week 10 was one of his better showings this season. He hauled in seven passes for 103 yards on seven targets. From week to week, Godwin’s starting upside has been tied to his red-zone usage. He has four receiving touchdowns (all of which have come in the red zone) and leads Tampa Bay in red-zone targets (9) entering Week 10.

So, this week’s season-high seven-reception performance is remarkable, because added receiving volume would substantially boost his fantasy floor for the rest of the season.

We’ll see if Godwin can maintain his boosted target share and find the end zone again this week against the New York Giants.


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The Watch List

Every week, I highlight players who should be on your watch list — players to monitor who aren’t necessarily worth an add this week but who could develop into viable season-long options. Current ESPN ownership percentage for each player is in parentheses.

  • Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets (10.6%)
  • Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals (31.1%)
  • David Moore, WR, Seattle Seahawks (11.4%)
  • Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (29.7%)
  • Elijah McGuire, RB, New York Jets (23.2%)
  • Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (32.5%)
  • Ito Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons (46.1%)
  • Jalen Richard, RB, Oakland Raiders (49.8%)
  • Jeff Heuerman, TE, Denver Broncos (7.9%)
  • John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (17.6%)
  • Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans (13.7%)
  • Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks (13.0%)
  • Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions (19.5%)
  • Tre’Quan Smith, WR, New Orleans Saints (19.8%)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (35.8%)
Credit:

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Anthony Miller

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