Colts-Eagles Player Prop: Should You Bet on Carson Wentz to Rush for 16 Yards?

Sep 22, 2018 10:02 PM EDT
  • Carson Wentz makes his long-awaited return to the field after his ACL injury in 2017.
  • The usually mobile quarterback was known to take off from the pocket when plays broke down before the injury.
  • Expect the Eagles to be cautious with him in his first live-game action.

Carson Wentz is back and reportedly better than ever entering the Eagles’ Week 3 matchup against the Colts. He’ll look to provide a spark to a struggling offense that’s averaged just 19.5 points per game through two weeks.

Still, Wentz will have to get the job done without some of his key weapons. Jay Ajayi (back, out), Darren Sproles (hamstring, out), Mike Wallace (ankle, IR) and Alshon Jeffery (shoulder, questionable) aren’t expected to suit up Sunday.

Thankfully for gamblers, there’s a way we can invest in Wentz without even worrying about the his lack of options at receiver.


>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 3 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday.


Over/Under 15.5 Rushing Yards for Carson Wentz in Week 3? (-120/-120)

Wentz is an 81st-percentile SPARQ-x athlete who has demonstrated the ability to use his legs to buy time in the pocket and pick up positive chunks of yardage. Overall, his average of 23 rushing yards per game last season ranked seventh among 29 quarterbacks who started at least eight games.

If anything, Wentz has received criticism for his failure to give up on the play, which has exposed him to big hits. But what quarterback wouldn’t try to create big plays on the ground when they’re capable of doing so?

Wentz wound up surpassing 16 rushing yards in seven of 13 starts in 2017 (54%), but just three of 16 starts in 2016 ( 19%). That’s a career rate of just 34.5% — with two fully functional knees.

The Eagles took their time bringing Wentz back to the field, but it still wouldn’t be surprising if they took some in-game precautions to avoid exposing their franchise quarterback to so many big hits.

The Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, believes there’s value in betting the under.

“This would have been a fair line for Wentz in 2017,” Koerner said. “In his first game back from ACL surgery, I’m projecting him closer to 9-10 rushing yards. I feel like there is quite a bit of value on the under here.”

Consistent year-to-year production is just about the hardest thing to find at any position in the NFL. The Eagles are hoping to get that from Wentz for the next decade, so consider fading Wentz’s high rushing yard projection in his first game back from a debilitating lower-body injury.

Follow Ian Hartitz on Twitter
@IHartitz

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BUF
NYJ
37
-9.5
37.5
-6.5
MIA
GB
47.5
-9.5
49
-12
NYG
SF
44
-3
45
-3
LAC
OAK
50.5
+10
50.5
+10
NO
CIN
55.5
+4.5
53.5
+6
NE
TEN
46.5
+7
46.5
+6.5
CAR
PIT
50
-7
51
-3.5
ARI
KC
50
-17.5
49.5
-16.5
WAS
TB
51.5
PK
51
-3.5
DET
CHI
46.5
-6.5
44.5
-7
ATL
CLE
51
+3.5
49.5
+6
JAC
IND
47.5
-3
48
-3
SEA
LA
51.5
-11.5
51
-10
DAL
PHI
43.5
-6
45
-7.5