Freedman’s Favorite NFL Prop Bet (Jan. 14): Will Kyler Murray Throw an NFL Pass or Get an MLB Hit First?


John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyler Murray

Jan 14, 2019, 09:35 AM EST
  • In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring his favorite prop bet for each day.
  • On Monday, he looks at Oklahoma quarterback and outfielder Kyler Murray and a prop regarding his NFL and MLB future.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

7-9-2, +5.55 Units

  • Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
  • NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
  • NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
  • NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NFL Prop Bet for Monday, Jan. 14: Which Will Kyler Murray Do First?

  • Record an MLB hit (-200)
  • Record an NFL pass (+160)

The Pick: NFL Pass (+160)

UPDATE (3:30 pm ET): Kyler Murray has declared for the NFL draft.

Last week, news broke that Oklahoma quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray plans to enter the NFL draft, even though the Oakland A’s selected him No. 9 overall in last summer’s MLB amateur draft and signed him to a lucrative contract under the condition that he give up football after the 2018 college season.

Apparently, the A’s are still trying to convince Murray to play baseball instead of football. But here’s the thing: If Murray wanted to play baseball — if he were truly committed to it — he probably wouldn’t have risked a career-altering injury by playing football in 2018.

A redshirt junior, Murray is reportedly not expected to return to OU for a final season of football, and today is the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft.

Murray must forfeit most (if not all) of his signing bonus if he plays in the NFL, and training for and working out at the combine (Feb. 26) would conflict with and likely preempt his attending A’s spring training (Feb. 15), but he seems serious about wanting to play in the NFL. He seems to prefer football to baseball.

So if Murray is serious about the NFL, he’s unlikely to attend A’s spring training, and if he doesn’t do that, he’s very unlikely to make an MLB appearance this year.

And even if does dedicate himself to baseball, he could wallow in the minor leagues for years before giving up the sport and transitioning to the NFL.

But if he dedicates himself to football, he will likely be a first-round pick and a starting quarterback in 2019.

This bet won’t be graded for months (or maybe even years), so if you’d rather avoid it, I get it. For me, there’s too much value here at plus odds not to invest.

I’d bet it down to +140, although I think the odds are better than not that he attempts an NFL pass before he gets an MLB hit.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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