Best Giants-Falcons MNF Player Props: Saquon Barkley Over/Under 6.0 Receptions?
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saquon Barkley
- There are two props offering betting value in the Monday Night Football game between the New York Giants and Evan Engram (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- This piece will analyze the following prop bets: Giants RB Saquon Barkley over/under six receptions and Giants TE Evan Engram over/under 4.5 receptions.
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There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the New York Giants-Atlanta Falcons matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Monday.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley
The pick: Over 6.0 receptions (-120 @ Bovada)
Barkley has averaged 6.7 receptions per game this year, more than any other player at the position, and the Falcons have allowed the most receptions and third-most receiving yards to running backs this season.
Despite the likely return of Evan Engram tonight, Barkley should remain the clear focal point of the Giants’ game plan against an Atlanta defense that would prefer to not get beat deep.
Peyton Barber, James Conner and Gio Bernard totaled just four catches each over the past three weeks. However, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey absolutely shredded Atlanta for 15 and 14 receptions, respectively, each surpassing 100 yards through the air.
It’s not a stretch to say that Barkley’s skill set (No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft) skews closer to the that of Kamara and McCaffrey, so this line could have been set even higher … and I would still have interest based on matchup and talent alone.
Giants TE Evan Engram
The pick: Under 4.5 receptions (-105 @ 5Dimes)
Barkley and Odell Beckham will almost certainly get theirs, which leaves the majority of the remaining targets to Engram and Sterling Shepard. This line just looks a tad aggressive for a tight end who has averaged 4.11 receptions per game in his young career.
Atlanta ranks in the middle of the pack in receptions per game allowed to tight ends (4.83), and according to Football Outsiders, the Falcons have struggled to defend the opposing team’s WR1 (21st), WR2 (19th), Other WR (27th), and RB (26th) more than the TE position (15th).
Despite the mostly neutral matchup on paper for Engram, the appeal with this prop comes from attacking a value (-105) in a situation where a player is coming off an injury and you can attack the opponent successfully in many other ways.