Giants vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds & Picks: The Daniel Jones Era Begins

Giants vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds & Picks: The Daniel Jones Era Begins article feature image
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Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8).

Giants at Buccaneers Betting Odds

  • Odds: Buccaneers -6.5
  • Total: 47.5
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds above as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

It’s the dawning of a new age for the New York Giants. Earlier this week, Big Blue named Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback, relegating Eli Manning to a mentor role.

While the Giants should look different with Jones under center, the move had very little impact on the betting market. The line for this game opened with the Bucs as 6.5-point favorites and that’s where it sits on Thursday afternoon.

Should you back Jones and the Giants on the road? Or will they fall to 0-3 against the spread? Our experts break this game down, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Giants-Buccaneers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Buccaneers

Everyone on the Bucs has either been practicing in full or getting in limited sessions, which would indicate that there isn’t too much to worry about the injury front from their side.

The Giants are also trending upward as Sterling Shepard was cleared from the concussion protocol on Thursday. Their main injuries revolve around their secondary receiving options in Bennie Fowler (hamstring) and Cody Latimer (concussion) as they both continue to miss practices this week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Buccaneers -6
  • Projected Total: 49

The Daniel Jones era has arrived.

Before the season started, I wrote that when the switch from Manning to Jones was made, it likely wouldn’t impact my Giants’ power rating. The market seems to agree, as the line has stayed at the 6.5 opener despite the surprise announcement.

Last week I recommended taking the Buccaneers moneyline in the +240 and +260 range instead of at +6.5 since their Thursday night showdown against the Panthers featured two highly-volatile QBs. I’m thinking the same thing here with the Giants moneyline available in the +240 range — that way you get the built-in uncertainty of Jones’ debut and Jameis Winston’s wide range of week-to-week performances.

While I agree the Bucs should be right around 6-point favorites, it’s a line that has a wider range of outcomes than most, which is why taking the dog on the moneyline here makes the most sense. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Buccaneers Pass-Catchers vs. Giants Secondary

Through the first two games, the Buccaneers have hardly looked like a typical Bruce Arians-coached team. According to TJ Hernandez of 4for4, Tampa Bay has the fourth-lowest passing rate in game-neutral situations through two games. That will change on Sunday against New York.

The last time we saw the Giants on the road, they allowed 405 passing yards and four touchdowns to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. The Giants rank 30th in Football Outsiders‘ total defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA.

The Buccaneers have made the most of things despite poor quarterback play from Winston (201 passing yards per game, two touchdowns, three interceptions), and poor production from receiver Mike Evans (six receptions, 89 total yards) and tight end O.J. Howard (four receptions, 32 total yards).

The highlight so far has been the outstanding play of third-year breakout candidate Chris Godwin, who has totaled 11 receptions, 174 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

The woeful Giants secondary faces their toughest challenge against a Tampa Bay offense that will try to desperately try to get Evans and Howard going. This week should provide Howard his best opportunity against a Giants team that allowed 81 receptions, 959 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season to opposing tight ends.

The Giants want to avoid a high-scoring shootout with rookie quarterback Daniel Jones making his first NFL start. However, the 47.5-point over/under is the one of the higher totals on the board in Week 3. With Tampa Bay featuring plodder Peyton Barber as their lead running back, it’s hard to envision a run-heavy game plan for the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay will look to ignite its passing attack at home in Week 3, putting the spotlight on a Giants secondary that is again at a disadvantage. Mike Randle

Expert Picks

Randle: Bucs -6.5

There are too many things in the Buccaneers favor in this matchup.

Evans is fully healthy and should draw less attention given the early-season numbers that Godwin is posting. Evans has finished with over 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first five seasons, and is due for positive regression on his 89 total receiving yards this season.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has the Tampa Bay defense playing at a surprisingly efficient level. Through two games, the Buccaneers rank first overall in run defense DVOA.

Most importantly? Jones is making his first NFL start on the road with a decimated receiving corps and may be without his starting left guard.

This sets up as a great opportunity for the Tampa Bay offense to get right and the Bucs are coming off extra rest.

The Giants are trending in the opposite direction, heading on the road with a rookie quarterback and taking on the best run defense through the first two weeks of the season.

I’m taking Tampa Bay -6.5 and would feel comfortable taking this line up to 7.5.

Stuckey: Why I’m Using the Bucs in 6-point Teasers

I’d also add that Tampa’s 3-4 defense under Bowles looks much improved, especially in the interior with Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. The Bucs are allowing 2.7 yards per rush, which ranks third in the NFL, and that bodes well for them on Sunday since the Giants offense right now is basically all focused on Saquon Barkley.

This new-look Tampa defense looks up to the task, and I don’t think Jones and his underwhelming group of receivers can exploit the Bucs’ weakness on defense: Their secondary.

Teasing the Bucs down to -0.5 crosses them through 6, 4 and 3, so they’re definitely an option to consider for teaser players.

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