NFL Pro System: A Winning Betting Angle for Giants vs. Jets

The Chargers offense was struggling heading into Week 9. Los Angeles had been held to 20 or fewer points in four consecutive games.

As a result, Philip Rivers & Co. were small underdogs at home to Green Bay and there was lopsided action on the Packers to cover. More than 80% of bettors thought this was a good spot to fade the Chargers' inconsistent offense.

They were wrong.

The Bolts took the opening kickoff and marched 84 yards for a field goal. It was the first time Los Angeles had scored on its opening drive since Week 4 in Miami.

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Rivers led two more first-half scoring drives and the Chargers easily defeated the Packers, 26-11, as 4-point underdogs.

Few expected this outcome. So, why did bettors get burned?

Offenses tend to regress to the mean from game to game. This means a unit that struggled to find the end zone the week prior could put points on the board in bunches in its next game.

Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued, which leads to inflated lines. These teams have added value against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

The optimal situation to wager on these clubs is in the first half.

Since 2003, bettors following this Pro System have gone 162-113-4 (58.9%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,526 following this strategy.

It is easy to see an offense struggle and assume the team will continue to perform at that level. But history suggests teams can bounce back after sluggish offensive performances.

Giants vs. Jets Betting System Pick

The Jets are a team looking turn its offense around. New York has lost three in a row. Sam Darnold & Co. have been a big part of the problem as the offense has been held to 18 or fewer points in each loss.

The recent downturn has helped contribute to the Jets being underdogs to the Giants in Week 10. More than 70% of bets are on the the G-Men to cover.

Darren Rovell loves the Giants to cover against the Jets this week. PointsBet is giving everyone in New Jersey boosted odds to bet the other side — Jets +2.5 (+110). New customers get an exclusive promotion: Deposit $50, bet with $150. No strings attached. No rollover required.

While this may seem like a good time to fade Gang Green’s bad offense, the Jets are a match for this first-half system. Further, while there is heavy action on the Giants, the full game line has moved from Jets +3 to +2.5.

When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, this is called reverse line movement — an indication of sharp money.

The public loves the Giants, but the pros are on the Jets.

Giants vs. Jets Pro Betting System Match

• Jets (+0.5) vs. Giants 1st half (1 p.m. ET, FOX) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]