Texans-Patriots Betting Preview: Should You Bet Against Brady?

Texans-Patriots Betting Preview: Should You Bet Against Brady? article feature image

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

Betting odds: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -6
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.

Betting market: Spread bets and dollars are both within a handful of points of 50% as of writing (see live data here), with the public clearly undecided about how it feels on this one.

The line has been in limbo between NE -6 and -6.5 for most of the week, and there was even a brief bump down to -5.5.

It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see the Texans available at +7 again, which was last available on June 8. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: As Mark noted, the line for this game has moved against the Patriots since New England opened as a 7-point favorite.

Are you betting against Tom Brady? I wouldn’t. Since 2003, when the line moves against TB12, the Patriots are 58-36-5 against-the-spread (62%). John Ewing

Since 1999, the previous year’s Super Bowl losers are 6-13 straight-up and 4-15 ATS in Week 1.

But like most trends, that doesn’t really apply to the Patriots, as they’ve gone 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) in season-openers following both of their Super Bowl losses over that span.

  • 2012: 34-13 at Tennessee as 4.5-point favorites
  • 2008: 17-10 vs. Kansas City as 16-point favorites Stuckey

Did you know? Brady enters 2018 having been favored in 50 consecutive starts, including the playoffs.

He currently owns the second-longest streak of consecutive games favored since at least 1990, behind only Kurt Warner (54 straight starts as a favorite).

Brady is 40-10 SU and 32-16-2 ATS (+15.6 units) over the streak, making him the most profitable QB in the NFL by more than five units. Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The Patriots’ ever-evolving backfield will have running back Rex Burkhead (knee), while first-rounder Sony Michel (knee) remains questionable.

Julian Edelman will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension, so Burkhead and James White could see additional snaps in the slot during Edelman’s absence.

Texans running back Lamar Miller is poised for a three-down role with D’Onta Foreman (Achilles) on the reserve/PUP list, and the offense should be at full strength with wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) expected to suit up.

Houston outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus (hamstring) is also expected to play through the pain and start on Sunday. Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Burkhead is the frontrunner to stand alongside Brady on the first snap of the season. He ranked as the RB8 in PPR points per game in Weeks 7-15 last season, and his average of 2.14 yards per route run ranked third.

Burkhead lined up in the slot or as a wide receiver on 18% of snaps in 2017. He’s only $4,200 on DraftKings and has a 95% Bargain Rating in FantasyLabs’ Models.

As for the Texans, it’s been awhile since Miller was a sexy fantasy commodity, but he’s positioned to work as Week 1’s cheapest three-down back.

Miller averaged an additional five PPR points per game with Deshaun Watson under center last season.

The Miami product is only $5,200 on DraftKings against a Patriots defense that ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA last season.Hartitz

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.