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Colts-Texans Betting Preview: Will Indy Dominate in Houston Again?

Jan 05, 2019 10:30 AM EST
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton, Deshaun Watson

NFL Playoffs Betting Odds: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

  • Spread: Texans -1
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Time: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN/ABC

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting Market

The Colts have been a trendy dog all week, receiving more than 50% of bets and dollars as of writing (see live data here). This support has pushed them from a 3-point underdog to just +1 on the road.

The over/under has received sharp action on each side. After opening at 47, the total rose to 49.5 behind steam on the over. But once it got that high, there was a reverse line move on the under, dropping it back down to 48 around the market. Mark Gallant

Trends to Know

Andrew Luck is 20-8-3 (71.4%) against the spread vs. the AFC South, covering by 5.8 points per game. But this will be the first time he’s seen a division opponent in the postseason.

According to our Bet Labs data, Luck is 4-0 straight-up (3-0-1 ATS) against divisional opponents that allowed fewer than 17 points in their previous game, covering by 11.3 points per game. He’s also 5-0 SU when the Colts opponents are coming off a double-digit win. Evan Abrams

This is a matchup of the Colts offense versus the Texans defense. Indy has averaged 27.1 points per game (fifth in the NFL) while Houston has allowed 19.8 points per game (tied for fourth).

When defenses allowing fewer than 20 points per game face offenses scoring more than 26 points per game in the playoffs, the defensive team has gone 39-29-2 (57%) ATS since 2003. John Ewing

According to Pythagorean expectations, the Colts have underperformed this season.

Since 2003, when a team with a winning record has underperformed according to point differential, it’s been profitable to bet them in December or later. These teams have gone 33-20-3 ATS in the playoffs. John Ewing

Biggest Mismatches

When the Colts have the ball: T.Y. Hilton vs. Texans Secondary

Despite Hilton being plagued by a nagging ankle injury that’s caused him to miss practice time and might have cut short a potential 90-yard catch-and-run touchdown after 43 yards in Week 17, the stud WR is undoubtedly the biggest threat to a Texans defense that’s the NFL’s second-worst unit at defending No. 1 wide receivers according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Hilton’s two stat lines against Houston this season are 4-115 on six targets and 9-199 on 12 targets, including gains of 60, 42, 40, 34, 29 and 28.

And despite the Texans securing a first-round home playoff game for the third time in four seasons, you couldn’t blame fans for not feeling like home field is an advantage against this particular opponent.

Under Bill O’Brien, the Texans are 1-4 at home against the Colts, and a big reason why is that Hilton in Houston channels MJ in Madison Square Garden: Of Hilton’s five combined regular season and playoff games with at least 175 yards receiving, three have taken place in Houston — all one-score losses for the Texans. Chris Raybon

When the Texans have the ball: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Colts Secondary