Colts-Jets Betting Preview: Will Andrew Luck Carry Indy to a Win?

Colts-Jets Betting Preview: Will Andrew Luck Carry Indy to a Win? article feature image

Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) calls a play in the huddle against the San Fancisco 49ers in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

  • Spread: Jets -2.5
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • Channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: This spread has been waffling like a Belgian ever since opening. The Colts have been available at +3 on four different occasions, but it keeps being bet down to +2.5.

Once it’s down to 2.5, Jets bettors push it back to -3 (you can see the live lines here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Over the Colts’ past 16 games, they are 3 13 straight-up (-6.2 PPG differential), including three consecutive losses outright and back-to-back losses against the spread entering Week 6.

When Indy faces a team with a losing record after the Colts fail to win SU and cover the spread in their previous game, quarterback Andrew Luck is 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS, covering the spread by 8.8 PPG (per Bet Labs data). — Evan Abrams

Did you know? Sam Darnold is one of five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 draft. Four of them started — and lost — in Week 4 but then won in Week 5. That’s the first time in the Super Bowl era that rookie quarterbacks have gone 4-0 in the same week. — John Ewing

Which team is healthier? Jets

Neither team is anywhere close to healthy. The Jets could be without starting running back Isaiah Crowell (ankle), defensive end Leonard Williams (back), and cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson (quad) and Buster Skrine (concussion).

That’s still nothing compared to the Colts, who are essentially a hospital ward dressed as a football team.

The most relevant players who have failed to get in a full practice this week include tight end Jack Doyle (hip), tight end Eric Ebron (shin/quad/ankle/knee), center Ryan Kelly (Calf), wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (chest/hamstring) and safety Clayton Geathers (concussion/neck).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Biggest mismatch: Colts defensive line vs. Jets offensive line

Per Football Outsiders, the Jets’ offensive line ranks just 20th in adjusted sack rate, while the Colts’ defensive line ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate, generating 17 sacks this season.

This could spell trouble for Darnold, who has meager 46.7% completion rate, 6.7% interception rate and 66.3 passer rating when pressured. — Justin Bailey

DFS edge: There isn’t much to like about the Colts’ passing game entering their matchup against the Jets’ sixth-ranked defense in pass DVOA.

Hilton and Doyle look like longshots to suit up, so the Colts will move forward with Ebron, Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal as their top four weapons.

This isolated target share has helped make Ebron the slate’s highest-priced tight end on DraftKings at $5,400, although he carries an elevated 9-12% projected ownership rate. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Colts +3

This is a classic example of people being too reactionary. The Jets played great against Denver, but that does not mean it translates week to week. The Colts predictably laid an egg at New England and are devalued in the eyes of the public.

Luck against Darnold is a matchup I’ll take. I expect the Colts to focus on stopping the run and making Darnold beat them. I don’t believe he will. Take the Colts. — BlackJack Fletcher

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.