Colts-Redskins Betting Preview: An Angle on the Over/Under

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Betting market: Washington's impressive win in Arizona has given bettors faith, as 70% are taking the Redskins to cover against the Colts (see live data here), who disappointed in Week 1 against the Bengals.

This Washington support has driven the line from -4.5/-5 to -5.5/-6 across the market. I doubt we will see it reach -7.

The over/under had some interesting movement, as well. It appeared in the early part of the week that bettors believed Hurricane Florence would impact the game.

The total dropped from 48 to 45.5 on Monday morning, but has since jumped back up to 48 (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Weather report: It doesn’t look like Florence will end up having much of an affect on the game.

Though winds are expected to be right around 10 mph, which has historically benefited the under, it will hardly feel like hurricane conditions. Chances of rain have also dropped significantly. — Gallant

Trends to know: Washington beat Arizona 24-6 as a 2-point underdog last week. Now might be the time to buy the Redskins before the market catches up.

Since 2003, teams playing at home in Week 2 after an easy cover (7 or more points) have gone 39-29-4 against the spread (57%). — John Ewing

The Colts lost 34-23 at home to the Bengals in Week 1, but over Andrew Luck's career (since 2012), no quarterback has been more profitable ATS after a loss than him.

Luck is an amazing 22-6 ATS (+14.8 units) after a straight-up loss, covering the spread by almost a full touchdown per game (6.9 points per game).

Luck's 22-6 ATS record in this spot includes a 10-1 ATS mark as an underdog. He is covering by 13.4 points per game as a dog. — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: Colts starting safety Clayton Geathers (knee) is tentatively expected to suit up, but defensive tackle Denico Autry (ankle) was downgraded to a DNP on Thursday and should be considered very questionable.

The offense could be without left tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring), right tackle Denzelle Good (knee/wrist) and running back Marlon Mack (hamstring).

The Redskins are fairly healthy other than at backup receiver, as Trey Quinn (ankle) and Cam Sims (ankle) were both placed on Injured Reserve, while Maurice Harris (concussion) should be considered questionable. — Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30pm EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

Matchup to watch: Redskins pass rush vs. a depleted Colts tackles.

With the Colts recently sending J’Marcus Webb to IR and Castonzo's status in question, Braden Smith and Joe Haeg could start at tackle … with a rookie at running back (Jordan Wilkins).

That's not ideal on the road against a very good Washington pass rush — especially considering Luck had only a 25.7 passer rating under pressure last week (per Pro Football Focus). — Stuckey

DFS edge: WR T.Y. Hilton’s game is built on speed and precise route-running ability, so it's not surprising that he’s struggled to offer the same upside away from the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium or other domes in recent seasons.

Overall, Hilton has totaled 13 games with 20-plus DraftKings points indoors since 2014, compared to just five such games outdoors — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Over (but look for 47 or 47.5).

Since the Colts drafted Luck in 2012, their defense is allowing the ninth-highest passer rating in the NFL (90.4) and 7.5 yards per attempt through the air (fourth highest). The Redskins are also on both of those lists, having the third-highest yards per attempt and fifth-highest passer rating.

Washington's defense looked good against an inept Arizona offense last week, but facing Luck will be a different task. The Redskins' rushing game should cut through Indianapolis, after it led the league in 10+ yard rushes in Week 1 with seven.

The Colts defense gave up 34 points to the Bengals last week, allowing Cincinnati to average more than five yards a carry. In Luck's career, the over is 22-13 (+8 units) when Indianapolis plays on the road, going over the total by five points per game, including in nine of Luck’s last 10 road starts.

I'd advise looking for the over at 47 or 47.5.

Since 2015, the total of 47 (3.6%) is the second-most frequent combined score in the NFL behind only 43 (4%), while 48 comes in at 2.5%, right in the middle of the pack. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.