Jaguars-Cowboys Betting Preview: Should You Buy Low on Jacksonville?

Jaguars-Cowboys Betting Preview: Should You Buy Low on Jacksonville? article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Myles Jack, Ezekiel Elliott

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

  • Spread: Jaguars -3
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: With 53% of bets and 65% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), Jacksonville has moved from -1.5/-2 to -2.5/-3 since opening. The majority of books have the line at Jacksonville -3 (+100ish), but a handful have the Jaguars at a heavily juiced -2.5.

This marks the third of three games on the 4 p.m. ET slate this Sunday with a popular under, which has helped push the total down from 41.5 to 40.5. Mark Gallant

The Cowboys are currently receiving less than 50% of tickets. They’re averaging less than 45% of tickets through six games (42% at the time of writing), which would be their second-lowest support over a full season in the last decade should it maintain.

The lowest was 33% in 2015, when Dallas finished 4-12. Evan Abrams

Trends to know: Jason Garrett is a +250 favorite to be the first NFL coach fired this season. Under Garrett, the Cowboys are 4-14 straight up as an underdog in Jerry’s World.John Ewing


Did you know? Since the Jaguars’ Week 1 win over the Giants, they are -8 in turnover differential — including -3 in each of their last two games, losing the turnover battle in their last four games overall.

And guess what? The Jaguars are still 3-2 SU.

Over the past decade, only four teams have lost the turnover differential in four consecutive games and have still been better than .500. Two of those four teams won the fifth game SU, but none covered the spread. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Cowboys wide receivers vs. Jaguars pass defense

Just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it any less true: The Cowboys wide receivers are awful, and the Jaguars pass defense is the best in the league.

Collectively, Cowboys receivers have averaged only 120.8 yards per game, while the Jags have held opposing wideouts to a league-low 130.4 yards per game. Think about that: Cowboys receivers have been worse than the receivers facing the Jags — and now they themselves are facing the Jags.

With Pro Bowl cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye on the outside, Dak Prescott will struggle to get the ball to the underwhelming triumvirate of Cowboys receivers (Allen Hurns, Deonte Thompson and Michael Gallup). Matthew Freedman

Jalen-Ramsey
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jalen Ramsey

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

Most of the Cowboys’ banged-up defenders are expected to suit up Sunday, with the exception of stud linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) and defensive tackles David Irving (personal) and Maliek Collins (knee).

The visiting Jaguars have already ruled out Leonard Fournette (hamstring), slot corner D.J. Hayden (toe) and left tackle Josh Wells (groin). Center Brandon Linder (knee), right guard Andrew Norwell (foot) and defensive tackle Malik Jackson (back) aren’t guaranteed to suit up, either.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Cowboys defense is intriguing on DraftKings considering it costs only $2,300. Dallas has quietly been good this season, ranking third in pressures and averaging 3.0 sacks per game.

Additionally, the Cowboys take on a Jaguars offense that boasts a league-worst 20.7% turnover rate. Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Jaguars -3

Millman might send me to timeout for taking a short road favorite, but I love buying low on the Jags in this spot.

Kansas City puts up 30 points on every team, so I’m not reading too much into Jacksonville’s 16-point loss on the road vs. the Chiefs last week.

The Jags will go from playing the best offense in the NFL to one of the worst. Prescott and his putrid pass catchers won’t be able to muster much through the air against Ramsey & Co. And while Ezekiel Elliott remains a force, the Jags are much more formidable against the run in 2018 (seventh in Football Outsiders’ DVOA) compared to last season (27th).

I like quarterback Blake Bortles’ chances of finding a few chunk plays in the passing game against an over-hyped Dallas secondary. (We get it, Byron Jones made the switch from safety to corner and isn’t a complete disaster, congrats!)

Look for the Jags to prove they’re one of the three best teams in the AFC by manhandling the Cowboys up front and winning by double digits. Scott T. Miller


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.