Jaguars-Dolphins Betting Preview: Will Either Team Be Able to Move the Ball?

Jaguars-Dolphins Betting Preview: Will Either Team Be Able to Move the Ball? article feature image
Credit:

Bruce Hemmelgram, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Dolphins -3.5
  • Over/Under: 38
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Getting 79% of bets, the Dolphins are on pace to be one of the most popular teams on Sunday. Those bets have accounted for only 34% of money, though, meaning bigger bettors are playing the Jags.

Behind that potentially sharp support, this line has fallen from -5 to -3.5.

Big bettors have also taken a liking to the under. While it’s picking up only 40% of bets, the under has drawn 81% of dollars to fall from 39.5 to 38 (see live betting data here). — Danny Donahue

Trends to Know: It has been profitable to bet the over when three conditions are met: low-total, limited wind and non-division game. Check, check, check for Jags-Dolphins. —John Ewing

The Jaguars have scored just 28 total points in their last three games. Since 2003, teams that score fewer than 14 points in three consecutive games are 14-26-1 (35%) against the first-half spread in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Turnover differential

While the Jags’ defense still has very respectable numbers (No. 4 in yards per play allowed), it simply isn’t generating enough plays — either via pressure or by forcing turnovers.

On the other side, the Dolphins’ overall numbers have been significantly worse (31st in yards per play allowed), but Miami has been very opportunistic. The Dolphins rank tied for third with an average of 1.9 turnovers per game, while the Jags rank 24th at 1.0. To put that into perspective, the Jags finished tied for first in the NFL in 2017 at more than double their average this year at 2.1 per game.

The Dolphins could improve upon the league’s second-highest opposing interception rate (4.37%, which only trails the Bears) against a Jags team that will certainly turn the ball over. The Jacksonville offense, which has only scored one total TD in the past three games (first time in franchise history), has turned it over an average of 1.9 times per game (third-worst clip in the league).

In a classic late season ugly and meaningless NFL battle between two corpses, Miami’s defense could decide this with a few more momentum-swinging plays. — Stuckey

DFS Edge: Jalen Ramsey hasn’t shadowed during the last two weeks and doesn’t seem like a strong candidate to track Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker or Brice Butler. Production will be hard to come by for any receivers involved in the Dolphins’ run-first offense, as Ryan Tannehill is averaging a pathetic 187.3 yards per game through the air this season.

Jaguars-Dolphins joins Redskins-Titans as the week’s only games with implied game totals under 40 points. These passing “attacks” should generally be avoided in fantasy, but the Dolphins defense is popping a bit in our Pro Models at $2,700 against a Jaguars offense that has scored just 28 total points during their last three weeks with Cody Kessler under center. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

Leonard Fournette (foot) practiced in full all week, but the coaching staff apparently doesn’t want to overload him with carries moving forward. The offense isn’t expected to welcome back rookie DJ Chark (quad), while the defense is dealing with an injury to safety Ronnie Harrison (knee, IR) shortly after they decided to release Barry Church.

Question marks for the Dolphins include linebacker Kiko Alonso (knee, hamstring), defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (hamstring), cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) and safety T.J. McDonald (foot).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Pass

Our proprietary power ratings made the spread for this game Miami -3.5, so this number has settled into the right spot.


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories