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Jaguars-Dolphins Betting Preview: Will Either Team Be Able to Move the Ball?

Dec 23, 2018 12:15 AM EST
Credit:

Bruce Hemmelgram, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Dolphins -3.5
  • Over/Under: 38
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Getting 79% of bets, the Dolphins are on pace to be one of the most popular teams on Sunday. Those bets have accounted for only 34% of money, though, meaning bigger bettors are playing the Jags.

Behind that potentially sharp support, this line has fallen from -5 to -3.5.

Big bettors have also taken a liking to the under. While it’s picking up only 40% of bets, the under has drawn 81% of dollars to fall from 39.5 to 38 (see live betting data here). — Danny Donahue

Trends to Know: It has been profitable to bet the over when three conditions are met: low-total, limited wind and non-division game. Check, check, check for Jags-Dolphins. —John Ewing

The Jaguars have scored just 28 total points in their last three games. Since 2003, teams that score fewer than 14 points in three consecutive games are 14-26-1 (35%) against the first-half spread in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Turnover differential

While the Jags’ defense still has very respectable numbers (No. 4 in yards per play allowed), it simply isn’t generating enough plays — either via pressure or by forcing turnovers.

On the other side, the Dolphins’ overall numbers have been significantly worse (31st in yards per play allowed), but Miami has been very opportunistic. The Dolphins rank tied for third with an average of 1.9 turnovers per game, while the Jags rank 24th at 1.0. To put that into perspective, the Jags finished tied for first in the NFL in 2017 at more than double their average this year at 2.1 per game.

The Dolphins could improve upon the league’s second-highest opposing interception rate (4.37%, which only trails the Bears) against a Jags team that will certainly turn the ball over. The Jacksonville offense, which has only scored one total TD in the past three games (first time in franchise history), has turned it over an average of 1.9 times per game (third-worst clip in the league).

In a classic late season ugly and meaningless NFL battle between two corpses, Miami’s defense could decide this with a few more momentum-swinging plays. — Stuckey

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