Jaguars-Dolphins Betting Preview: Will Either Team Be Able to Move the Ball?
Bruce Hemmelgram, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Tannehill
Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5
- Over/Under: 38
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: Getting 79% of bets, the Dolphins are on pace to be one of the most popular teams on Sunday. Those bets have accounted for only 34% of money, though, meaning bigger bettors are playing the Jags.
Behind that potentially sharp support, this line has fallen from -5 to -3.5.
Trends to Know: It has been profitable to bet the over when three conditions are met: low-total, limited wind and non-division game. Check, check, check for Jags-Dolphins. —John Ewing
The Jaguars have scored just 28 total points in their last three games. Since 2003, teams that score fewer than 14 points in three consecutive games are 14-26-1 (35%) against the first-half spread in this spot. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Turnover differential
While the Jags’ defense still has very respectable numbers (No. 4 in yards per play allowed), it simply isn’t generating enough plays — either via pressure or by forcing turnovers.
On the other side, the Dolphins’ overall numbers have been significantly worse (31st in yards per play allowed), but Miami has been very opportunistic. The Dolphins rank tied for third with an average of 1.9 turnovers per game, while the Jags rank 24th at 1.0. To put that into perspective, the Jags finished tied for first in the NFL in 2017 at more than double their average this year at 2.1 per game.
The Dolphins could improve upon the league’s second-highest opposing interception rate (4.37%, which only trails the Bears) against a Jags team that will certainly turn the ball over. The Jacksonville offense, which has only scored one total TD in the past three games (first time in franchise history), has turned it over an average of 1.9 times per game (third-worst clip in the league).
In a classic late season ugly and meaningless NFL battle between two corpses, Miami’s defense could decide this with a few more momentum-swinging plays. — Stuckey
DFS Edge: Jalen Ramsey hasn’t shadowed during the last two weeks and doesn’t seem like a strong candidate to track Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker or Brice Butler. Production will be hard to come by for any receivers involved in the Dolphins’ run-first offense, as Ryan Tannehill is averaging a pathetic 187.3 yards per game through the air this season.
Jaguars-Dolphins joins Redskins-Titans as the week’s only games with implied game totals under 40 points. These passing “attacks” should generally be avoided in fantasy, but the Dolphins defense is popping a bit in our Pro Models at $2,700 against a Jaguars offense that has scored just 28 total points during their last three weeks with Cody Kessler under center. — Ian Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Jaguars
Leonard Fournette (foot) practiced in full all week, but the coaching staff apparently doesn’t want to overload him with carries moving forward. The offense isn’t expected to welcome back rookie DJ Chark (quad), while the defense is dealing with an injury to safety Ronnie Harrison (knee, IR) shortly after they decided to release Barry Church.
Question marks for the Dolphins include linebacker Kiko Alonso (knee, hamstring), defensive tackle Ziggy Hood (hamstring), cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) and safety T.J. McDonald (foot).
Bet to watch: Pass
Our proprietary power ratings made the spread for this game Miami -3.5, so this number has settled into the right spot.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.