Are the Browns the Worst Super Bowl 54 Bet? We Analyze Jeopardy James’ Claim
Pictured: James Holzhauer
- Jeopardy James Holzhauer thinks the Cleveland Browns are the worst Super Bowl 54 bet.
- The Action Network ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 season to find out if Holzhauer is correct.
Expectations are high for the Cleveland Browns heading into the 2019 season.
After winning five of their last seven games to close out the 2018 campaign and adding star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to an impressive offensive core that includes Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku, the Browns are +1600 — seventh-best odds — to win the Super Bowl.
But former “Jeopardy” champ James Holzhauer believes the Browns are a sucker bet.
He recently told Peter King, “I would say that the big thing to avoid is look away from teams that have all the hype surrounding them.”
The professional sports gambler went on to say, “I can’t believe we live in a world where the Cleveland Browns are the most hyped team in the preseason. But I would say they’re probably the single worst bet to win the Super Bowl right now.”
Is Jeopardy James correct?
According to The Action Network’s NFL model, which ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 season, the Browns have a 1.98 % chance to win Super Bowl 54 — 15th-best odds in the league.
The implied probability that Cleveland will be crowned champion based on +1600 odds is 5.88%. The 3.9% difference between projected chance and implied probability is the largest of any team in our simulations.
Holzhauer is right. The Browns are the worst Super Bowl bet.
But which team would he pick to lift the Lombardi Trophy?
“If I had to pick a team or two to make it to the Super Bowl, win the Super Bowl, the boring answer is the Patriots and the Rams. Everyone knows these guys are the best teams out there,” he said.
The Action Network model projects the Rams as the most likely champions with a 12.56% chance of winning and gives the Patriots a 10.65% chance (fourth best) of winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
Who would have thought a guy who won 32 consecutive games of Jeopardy and racked up more than $2 million in winnings would know what he was talking about?