Best Jets-Browns TNF Player Props: David Njoku Over/Under 30.5 Receiving Yards?
Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Njoku
- The New York Jets are 3-point underdogs to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.
- We break down two player prop bets with value: Jets RB Bilal Powell over/under 18.5 receiving yards and Browns TE David Njoku over/under 30.5 receiving yards.
Here’s analysis of two NFL player prop bets offering value in the New York Jets-Cleveland Browns matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network.
>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see the six bets rated an 8 out of 10 or better for tonight’s Jets-Browns game. All lines are as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Jets RB Bilal Powell
The pick: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-125)
The Browns have not received the majority of spread tickets as a favorite since Nov. 30, 2015, so expect this game script to skew in favor of the Jets using Powell being more as a receiver.
That is exactly where Cleveland has been most vulnerable to start the season, as the Browns currently rank 30th in DVOA at defending running backs through the air (Football Outsiders).
When receiving at least three targets, Powell has averaged 26.81 receiving yards per game in 48 career games.
Browns TE David Njoku
The pick: Over 30.5 receiving yards (+110)
Njoku has contributed only 33 yards on 14 targets this season, but he does rank ninth at the position in air yards (117).
That screams upside to me for a prop set at +110, because at some point, his yardage totals should progress toward the mean.
The Jets have locked down tight ends so far this season (31 yards on six targets), but they have also faced Detroit and Miami, so I’m not willing to let a perceived poor matchup trump strong usage.
Tyrod Taylor has thrown to his tight end on 24.3% of his attempts over the past year, sixth-most of any quarterback who’s playing this week.