Jets vs. Patriots Betting Odds & Picks: Can Tom Brady Cover Another Massive Spread?

Jets vs. Patriots Betting Odds & Picks: Can Tom Brady Cover Another Massive Spread? article feature image
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Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

Jets at Patriots Betting Odds

  • Odds: Patriots -22
  • Total: 43.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds above as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Patriots covered the 19-point spread in Miami with incredible ease, shutting the Dolphins out 43-0. Now Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are once again massive favorites against another AFC East opponent.

Will it be another cakewalk?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Jets-Patriots Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

The Patriots placed OL Isaiah Wynn (foot) on injured reserve this week, but otherwise they’re looking good. Tom Brady (calf) has practiced in a limited fashion all week, but it’s highly unlikely he’d miss this game.

The Jets are decimated already and will continue to be without Sam Darnold (mono), and Trevor Siemian (ankle) was placed on IR following his early exit on Monday night.

Demaryius Thomas (knee/hamstring) hasn’t practiced all week and the same goes for LB C.J. Mosley, who isn’t expected to play. First-round pick Quinnen Williams (ankle) is also expected to be out. Missing defensive starters isn’t ideal with the Patriots on deck. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -21
  • Projected Total: 44

The Patriots made a mockery of the 19-point spread last week. Now they face the Jets, who will roll out their third-string quarterback, Luke Falk.

One thing I overlooked last week was Belichick vs. Dolphins head coach Brian Flores and offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea, who recently left New England for Miami. Belichick left Brady in with a 37-point lead late in the game to throw another touchdown pass, which had to be some sort of reminder from Belichick that he is the boss.

We might get him to ease off the gas a bit this week if the Patriots take an early lead. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots WRs vs. Jets Secondary

This could get ugly.

The Patriots will feature Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman against a Jets secondary that’s one of the worst in the NFL.

The Jets have allowed huge games to their opponents’ top WR in each of the first two games. In Week 1, Buffalo’s John Brown posted seven receptions, 123 yards and one touchdown on 10 total targets. Last week, Cleveland’s Odell Beckham Jr. finished with six receptions, 161 yards and a touchdown on another 10 targets.

If the Jets get Mosley and Williams back from injury, it would bolster their run defense. They will also need to generate pressure after totaling only one sack at home vs. Buffalo in the opening week.

Julian Edelman
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman

The secondary must play well against the most talented and deep receiving group the Jets will face all season. The Patriots are massive favorites in a game with a relatively low over/under. That line indicates the Jets could struggle on offense with Falk against the Patriots’ top-ranked defense.

If the Jets have any hope of keeping this game close, their secondary must produce at a level we have yet to witness this season. Mike Randle

PRO System Match

Jets quarterbacks can’t stay on the field, and the Patriots are the reigning Super Bowl champions. Fewer than 20% of bets are on the Jets to cover this double-digit spread as of writing (see live public betting data here).

Historically, it’s been profitable to buy low on teams after a bad offensive performance.

Since 2003, teams getting fewer than 30% of bets after scoring fewer than 10 points have gone 147-94-4 (61%) against the spread in their next game. A $100 bettor would be up $4,438 following this Pro System.

The Jets look like a mess, but this could be the week to back them ATS. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Under 43.5

The Jets’ third-string quarterback will make his first career start in Foxboro? With a depleted receiving corps? In front of a subpar offensive line? Against one of the best secondaries in the NFL?

That’s not how you dream it up as a kid.

I’m just not sure how the Jets move the ball.

The Patriots and their man heavy defense have three corners who can take away anybody the Jets put out there on the outside. I assume the Jets will play super slow and feed Le’Veon Bell to try to shorten the game as much as possible — it’s their only prayer to even stay remotely close. Perhaps Bell can break a few big plays, but this is just a nightmare matchup for the Falk and Co.

Brady and the Pats could put up 50, but I’ll take my chances with the under at anything higher than 43. (Remember that 43 is the most important number when it comes to NFL totals since the extra point rule change.)

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