Koerner: How Josh Rosen Trade Is Likely to Affect My Dolphins, Cardinals Power Ratings
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Rosen
- The Arizona Cardinals traded Josh Rosen to the Miami Dolphins on Friday during the second round of the NFL Draft.
- The Cardinals received Miami's 62nd overall pick (which they used to draft WR Andy Isabella) and a 2020 fifth-round pick.
- See how I expect this to impact both teams' win totals and projections for 2019.
This trade seems to be in line with what the market was expecting to happen, so I don’t foresee win totals or Week 1 lines to change much as a result.
I’ll be fully recalculating my power ratings and win total projections for all 32 teams next week once the draft is finished, but let’s quickly run through how I expect this move to impact how I’m projecting the Cardinals and Dolphins for the 2019 season.
First, Kyler Murray is likely a 2.5- to 3-point upgrade for the Cardinals’ power rating, but I had already factored that in heading into the draft: Their -5.0 rating was the second-worst in the league, just ahead of Miami at -5.5. Second, if Josh Rosen ends up the Dolphins’ Week 1 starter over Ryan Fitzpatrick, I’ll probably actually dock Miami 0.5- to 1-point.
For context, I use my power ratings to project weekly spreads — which you can read more about how here — by plugging them into this formula: (Team A’s Power Rating – Team B’s Power Rating) + Team A’s Home Field Advantage = Game spread. (HFA is typically worth 2-3 points.)
So, for example, the Dolphins opened as +4 underdogs for their Week 1 matchup against Baltimore with Fitzpatrick as the presumed starter. So now I assume that, if Rosen starts, Miami would be +5.
Week 1 the Dolphins were +4 vs. the Ravens with Ryan Fitzpatrick as starter.
Assuming Josh Rosen is the starter now, what do you think the line will move to?
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) April 27, 2019
It’s important to note that this trade doesn’t necessarily mean that the Dolphins are in win-now mode. They could still unload veterans like Reshad Jones at some point. So you have to be very weary about them in 2019 — they’re not playing to win.
And actually, making Rosen the Week 1 starter might be more in line with their effort to rebuild: Either he’s awful and they have the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, or he breaks out and they have their quarterback of the future.
Either way, I think this trade benefits both teams in the long run. Look out for my official updated win total projections for both teams next week.