Sharps Betting Against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Denver

Oct 01, 2018 12:00 AM EDT
  • After a 3-0 start -- straight up and against the spread -- the Kansas City Chiefs are getting 64% of the action from spread bettors for Monday night in Denver.
  • Despite the public support, the Chiefs have gone from -5 to -3.5 since opening at BookMaker and from -4.5 to -3.5 at Pinnacle.
  • This can be explained by a bets vs. dollars discrepancy as well as four bet signals coming in on the Broncos.

Patrick Mahomes is off to a record-breaking start to his first full season as the Kansas City Chiefs’ starting quarterback, and most folks believe that he and his offensive weapons won’t be contained in their Monday Night Football matchup against the Broncos.

The Chiefs opened as a 4.5/5-point road favorite, which is uncharted waters for them in Denver (where they haven’t been more than a 1.5-point favorite since 1990).

Since Kansas City has looked like a juggernaut, you can’t really blame the 64% of bettors who are currently laying the points and expecting the streak to continue (see live data here).

But don’t bunch professional bettors into that group, because they’re doing just the opposite.

Over the course of the week, we’ve tracked four sharp bet signals on the Broncos at numbers ranging from +4 to +5.5.

If we look at our dollar percentages, we’ll also see that the Chiefs account for 54% of the money despite receiving almost two thirds of the bets.

With larger bets coming in from sharper players on the Broncos, the line is moving in their favor. Early Sunday morning, their line moved from +4 to +3.5 at Pinnacle and at about 8 p.m. ET on Sunday night, BookMaker followed suit.

Professional bettors are all about the numbers, so don’t be surprised if there is sharp buyback on the Chiefs if the line moves to the key number of -3.

Credit:

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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