Kansas City Chiefs Nearing Historic Start Against the Spread

Oct 22, 2018 2:28 PM EDT
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have started the 2018 NFL season 7-0 against the spread (ATS).
  • In Week 8, Kansas City can tie the 2007 New England Patriots for best ATS start since 2003.
  • Bettors should be careful wagering on the Chiefs for the rest of the season as teams that start hot struggle to cover down the stretch.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) – the only remaining undefeated team against the number this season.

Andy Reid’s squad is just the third team to begin a season with seven consecutive covers since 2003 (per Bet Labs), joining the 2007 New England Patriots and 2008 Tennessee Titans.

Oddsmakers opened Kansas City as a 10-point favorite in Week 8 against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead. During their ATS winning streak, the Chiefs are covering by an average of 10.1 points per game.

If Patrick Mahomes and Co. cover on Sunday, they would tie the 2007 Patriots for best ATS start in the past 16 years.

Outside of Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs have received a majority of spread tickets in every game.

To the chagrin of the bookmakers, Kansas City keeps covering and the public is profiting. The question everyone is asking: Can the Chiefs continue besting the oddsmakers?

If history is any indication, no. Of the 11 teams listed above that started a season with at least five consecutive covers, none managed to have a winning ATS record after suffering their first ATS loss.

Including the playoffs, only the 2008 Titans and 2004 Eagles even managed to finish with a .500 ATS record following their first ATS loss.

The 2007 Patriots, who started the season by covering eight straight games, finished a lousy 2-9 ATS.

The 11 teams that started the season with at least five ATS wins since 2003 went a combined 63-0 ATS before their first ATS loss. After losing, those same teams were 45-82 (35%) ATS.

If you have been one of the many bettors wagering on the Chiefs each week, congratulations. But be careful chasing Kansas City covers the rest of the season.

Teams that start the season hot ATS regress down the stretch.

Credit:

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) rolls out to pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium.

Follow John Ewing on Twitter
@johnewing

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BUF
NYJ
37
-9.5
37.5
-6.5
MIA
GB
47.5
-9.5
49
-12
NYG
SF
44
-3
45
-3
LAC
OAK
50.5
+10
50.5
+10
NO
CIN
55.5
+4.5
53.5
+6
NE
TEN
46.5
+7
46.5
+6.5
CAR
PIT
50
-7
51
-3.5
ARI
KC
50
-17.5
49.5
-16.5
WAS
TB
51.5
PK
51
-3.5
DET
CHI
46.5
-6.5
44.5
-7
ATL
CLE
51
+3.5
49.5
+6
JAC
IND
47.5
-3
48
-3
SEA
LA
51.5
-11.5
51
-10
DAL
PHI
43.5
-6
45
-7.5