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How Motions and Mismatches Will Impact Chiefs-Rams Over/Under

Nov 19, 2018 9:50 PM EST
  • Anthony Amico breaks down how coverage and mismatches will influence whether the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Rams matchup hits its over/under.
  • The Monday Night Football total is set at a historically-high 63.5. So where's the value? Amico explains.

I’ll be leveraging my experience as a high school football coach and fantasy analyst with a statistics background to identify aspects of one matchup every week that you can take advantage of while setting your fantasy football lineups and/or placing bets on the upcoming slate.

This week we are focusing on what should be an exciting Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Rams in Los Angeles.

Expect a Lot of Man Coverage

To set the stage for this matchup, it’s important to know the type of coverage that will be predominantly on display. Fortunately, both of these teams keep it pretty simple.

I’ve highlighted how the Chiefs are one of the heaviest users of Cover 1 in the NFL this season. The Rams deployed a good mix of coverages under Wade Phillips in 2017, but after reloading at corner this past offseason with free-agent Sam Shields, then trading for Aqib Talib and Marcus Peter, they’ve utilized man coverage a lot more.

Even with Talib (ankle) on injured reserve, the Rams have been bold enough to use shadow coverage against opposing teams’ best weapons.

The Power of Jet Motion

The Ringer’s Robert Mays wrote an excellent piece about how jet motion is taking over the NFL. He gives a lot of the history behind the play, and details why it’s so effective.

Jet motion is when a wide receiver goes from one side of the field to the other, but the ball is snapped as the player approaches the center, usually around the tackle. The player in motion is a threat to receive a handoff or quick shovel if the quarterback is in shotgun.

So what makes this so effective?

Action Network EDGE

See how jet motion and mismatches will impact the Chiefs-Rams MNF showdown, plus what Anthony Amico is betting.

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Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-6.5
42.5
-7
43.5
44.5
-4
45.5
-2.5
44
-3
43.5
+1
47.5
-8.5
46.5
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46.5
-5
45
-5.5
38
PK
39.5
-2.5
46.5
-3.5
46
-3
44
-9
44
-10
44
-9.5
44.5
-7.5
47
-3
47.5
-3
36
-8.5
36
-7.5
-5.5
44.5
-3.5
44.5
-1
52.5
-3
54
54
-9.5
52
-12.5
-7
54
-6.5
50.5

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