Chiefs-Patriots SNF Betting Preview: Will Mahomes Keep Up With Brady?

Chiefs-Patriots SNF Betting Preview: Will Mahomes Keep Up With Brady? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady

Betting odds: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -3
  • Over/Under: 59.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: The Chiefs have been a trendy dog throughout the week and are up to 55% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here).

However, the majority of books have kept the Patriots at a juiced-up -3 or even a 3.5-point favorite — most likely because the Pats are getting about two-thirds of the money.

If books do fall back to -3 at standard juice (-110), I wouldn’t expect the line to stay there long. Danny Donahue

The over/under of 60 at Pinnacle is now tied for the highest we’ve ever tracked, and it’s not scaring over bettors away.

At least 75% of bets and dollars are on the over, pushing it from 57.5/58 into record-breaking territory.Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Kansas City is one of two undefeated teams in the NFL. Teams with a perfect record that are underdogs after September have gone 22-16-2 against the spread since 2003.

Meanwhile, in games that Tom Brady has started since 2003, the Patriots are 28-9-3 (76%) ATS as a home favorite of less than a touchdown. John Ewing

Over his career, Brady has faced 13 undefeated teams in Week 4 or later. He’s just 7-6 straight up and 6-6-1 ATS in such games.

Only one franchise — and quarterback — have beaten Brady and the Patriots in Foxborough in Week 4 or later while entering the game unbeaten (and they did it twice): the Colts and Peyton Manning in 2005 and ’06. Evan Abrams

Did you know? This is projected to be the largest over/under of Brady’s career. The biggest before this was 58 in 2014, when the Patriots faced the Colts and Andrew Luck. New England won in Indianapolis, and the game went over the total by just four points.

At 59.5, the projected over/under would also crush the previous high at Gillette Stadium, which was 56.5 in 2017 against the Falcons (the Patriots won 23-7).

No surprise here: The three highest over/unders in the stadium’s history were all New England wins. Abrams

Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bill Belichick (left) and Andy Reid

Coaching matchup: Andy Reid and Bill Belichick have a long history against each other, with seven total games (two in the playoffs) dating all the way back to 2003.

Reid and Belichick met in Super Bowl XXXIX, where Belichick’s Patriots beat the Reid’s Eagles 24-21, but failed to cover the touchdown spread. Overall, Belichick is 5-2 SU but only 3-4 ATS vs. Reid.

But Reid might have the advantage on Sunday: He’s 4-0 ATS vs. Belichick in prime time, covering the spread by 19.5 points per game.

Over the past five years, Reid is one of only three head coaches to beat Belichick twice.

Belichick’s record:

  • 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) vs. Doug Marrone (-3.4 ATS differential)
  • 1-2 SU (1-2 ATS) vs. Andy Reid (-17.3 ATS differential)
  • 1-2 SU (1-2 ATS) vs. Gary Kubiak (-1 ATS differential)

Just look at those ATS differentials. Abrams

Metrics that matter: The pressure is on Patrick Mahomes to not turn the ball over in a hostile environment. Since 2001, the Patriots are 23-1 SU and 17-6-1 ATS when winning the turnover battle at home under the prime-time lights.

The Patriots’ only SU loss? Sept. 7, 2017 against … Reid and the Chiefs.Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Mahomes vs. New England’s pass rush

Mahomes and Brady are tied with a league-low six sacks taken, but the difference is on defense, where New England hasn’t been able to get to the quarterback.

In the Patriots’ first season since defensive coordinator Matt Patricia left to coach the Lions, the defense ranks 30th in both sacks (seven) and Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate (4.0%) — a metric that accounts for sacks plus intentional grounding penalties per pass attempt and is adjusted for down, distance and opponent.

Meanwhile, Mahomes leads the NFL with a 128.9 passer rating when kept clean this season (per Pro Football Focus data). Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Chiefs

The Chiefs will probably be without all-world safety Eric Berry (heel) for at least another week, and featured pass rusher Justin Houston (hamstring) might not be able to suit up, either.

The Patriots are keeping the status of their players close to the vest as usual, but running back Sony Michel (ankle), wide receiver Chris Hogan (thigh) and cornerback Eric Rowe (groin), along with defensive tackles Malcolm Brown (knee) and Danny Shelton (elbow) aren’t locks to play.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: There are no scarier four words in football than “prime-time Tyreek Hill.” The next-level speedster has scored 11 total touchdowns in 12 career prime-time games over his two-plus seasons (including playoffs), generating scores via the run, the pass and the return game.

Up next is a matchup against a Patriots defense that Hill roasted for 133 receiving yards and a touchdown in the 2017 season opener.

He’s gone without a touchdown in three consecutive games for only the second time in his career. He found the end zone on three separate occasions in the ensuing game the other time this occurred. Hartitz

Bet to watch: Chiefs +3.5

In my opinion, Mahomes is the best player in the NFL right now. Kansas City is coming off a sound victory over Jacksonville on a short week, while New England is slow at the linebacker position and its safety play has been pathetic.

If you take the name off the Patriots’ jerseys, I think this game is close to a pick ’em.

Bold call: Chiefs win outright in a shootout. I am firing moneyline, spreads and alternative spreads on Kansas City. Peter Jennings

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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