Chiefs-Seahawks SNF Betting Preview: Which Prime-Time Kings Will Reign?

Chiefs-Seahawks SNF Betting Preview: Which Prime-Time Kings Will Reign? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyreek Hill, Russell Wilson

Betting odds: Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

  • Spread: Chiefs -2.5
  • Over/Under: 54.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: The Chiefs are getting steady bets and cash as 2.5-point favorites — 54% of tickets and 67% of money (see live data here) — and the oddsmakers have adjusted by increasing the juice on the -2.5 or moving up to -3, depending on the book.

The over is getting 67% of bets and 93% of money, moving up to 54.5. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Will the Chiefs bounce back after losing to the Chargers last Thursday? History says yes.

Since 2003, good teams that have won at least 70% of their games are 63-43 against the spread following a loss late in the season (December and January). John Ewing

Since Andy Reid took over in Kansas City, the Chiefs are 32-17-1 (65.3%) ATS on the road, covering by 5.2 points per game to profit bettors 14.2 units, making them the most profitable road team over that span. Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: Both teams need this game, but ironically, the Chiefs — who are tied for the second-best record in the NFL — need it a tad more.

Seattle cannot win the NFC West, but is very likely to make the playoffs (96.3% chance, according to our sims). A loss could bump the Seahawks down from the 5-seed to the 6-seed, but that’s really about it.

Kansas City, meanwhile, would secure the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win. Scott T. Miller

Did you know? Since 2003, no team has been more profitable to back in prime time than the Seahawks, who are a silly 28-11-4 (71.8%) ATS over that stretch.

That said, the Chiefs haven’t been too bad, sitting among the top five teams over that same span:

Home underdogs have actually hit at only a 47% clip in prime time since 2003, but that doesn’t apply to Seattle, which owns a league-best 5-0 ATS record as a prime-time home dog over that span. The Seahawks won four straight outright, including a game last season against the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.Stuckey

The prime-time factor: Russell Wilson and prime time are synonymous.

Wilson is 25-6-1 (80.6%) straight-up and 22-7-3 (75.9%) ATS when starting a game at 6 p.m. ET or later, covering by 7.8 points per game. He trails only Peyton Manning as the most profitable quarterback ATS in prime-time games since 2003.

This will be just the second time Wilson faces a team in prime time that’s averaging 35 points per game. The first was Super Bowl XLVIII, when he defeated Manning and the Broncos, 43-8.

Finally, Wilson is 5-0 SU and 3-0-2 ATS at home in prime time when coming off a loss, covering by 9.2 points per game. Abrams

Wilson is also 13-2 SU and 10-3-2 (76.9%) ATS in prime-time games at home in Seattle. Stuckey

Biggest mismatch: Patrick Mahomes vs. Seahawks’ Defense

Nobody can stop Mahomes this season. Even against the Ravens — who have one of the best secondaries in the league — he threw for 377 yards, two touchdowns and just one interception.

Now he takes on a Seattle defense allowing 6.1 yards per play. The Seahawks also lack an elite pass rush, ranking 18th in pressure rate and 17th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

Mahomes has an elite 8.8 yards per attempt and has thrown 45 touchdowns, 11 more than the next quarterback.

The Seahawks will have to defend the deep ball, too, as his 51.9% completion rate on passes 20-plus yards downfield is fourth among quarterbacks. He’s also completed those passes for 1,280 yards and 13 touchdowns (just five interceptions) — both of which are top two marks in the league (per Pro Football Focus). Justin Bailey

Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

Which team is healthier? Chiefs

The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (knee), slot corner Kendall Fuller (wrist), running back Spencer Ware (shoulder) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot).

Meanwhile, the Seahawks listed 12 key contributors as either limited or absent to start the week. The statuses of Doug Baldwin (hip), Rashaad Penny (ankle), linebacker K.J. Wright (knee), safeties Bradley McDougald (knee) and Tedric Thompson (chest, ankle) among others should be monitored closely.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Seahawks defense has exceeded expectations this season while attempting to move on from the Legion of Boom, but cornerback has remained a problem.

  • Slot corner Justin Coleman: PFF’s No. 48 overall CB
  • Right corner Tre Flowers: No. 65
  • Left corner Shaquill Griffin: No. 109

Reid should be free to scheme Tyreek Hill against Griffin to his heart’s desire. Hill’s legendary home/away and prime-time splits will be in effect for this matchup in Seattle.

Hill is $7,900 on DraftKings and boasts a strong 25.1-point projected ceiling. Hartitz

Bet to watch:  Seahawks +2.5

The Seahawks are 8-6 but have outscored opponents by 71 points, which is the same point differential as the 10-4 Texans. By Pythagorean plus/minus, the Seahawks are underperforming, and it’s been profitable to bet on such teams late in the season.

Since 2003, teams with a winning record and a positive Pythagorean plus/minus have gone 176-139-18 (56%) ATS in December or later.

The Action Network Power Rankings (Seahawks +0.5) and NFL simulations (Seahawks -1.4) also suggest there’s value betting on Wilson and Co. as home dogs. Ewing

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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