Kellen Mond NFL Draft Profile, Odds, Prop Bets & Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond
Kellen Mond NFL Draft Profile
Kellen Mond NFL Draft Props
I’m writing this on Day 2 of the NFL draft … and there are still props we can bet! For instance, Mond’s over/under of 74.5 at FanDuel.
- Over: -116
- Under: -106
I’m betting the over. Mond has an expected draft position of 83 at Grinding the Mocks …
… and he’s No. 100 in my top 100 big board.
Full disclosure: I have a middle position on Mond between 68.5 and 91.5, but I still think the over as it currently stands is bet-able.
At FanDuel, you can also bet on Mond vs. Kyle Trask in a head-to-head matchup.
- Kyle Trask: -172
- Kellen Mond: +134
In my top 100, I do have Trask ahead of Mond (82 vs. 100), but their draft stock is in the same general range.
If I were betting this prop now, Mond at plus money is the side I’d take although I don’t see much value in it presently. I arbitraged this prop last week by taking positions at different books with Trask at +112 and Mond +190.
At DraftKings, you can bet on the round in which Mond will be selected.
- Round 2: +300
- Round 3: +225
- Round 4: +225
- Round 5: +300
- Round 6: +600
- Round 7: +1600
At these odds, I would not bet it — although if you really want to do so, then I think focusing on Rounds 3-4 is best. When this prop was first released I took a position.
The Kellen Mond Tripartite Wager on DraftKings
R2: +700, 1 unit
R3: +250, 1 unit
R4: +200, 1 unit
R1: Not happening
R2: +5.0 units
R3: +0.5 units
R4: Break even
May the sports betting gawds be with us.https://t.co/BnoAA1vZE1
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 21, 2021
I doubt very much that Mond will go in Round 2, but that is very much what I’m rooting for.
Pick: Over 74.5, -116; 1.16 units
Bet Now: FanDuel
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Mond is one of those quarterbacks for whom I must (but don’t actually want to) write a blurb. In other words, a quarterback who could go on Day 2 but also might slip into Day 3. A quarterback on the borderline between possible relevance and certain insignificance.
What Mond has going for him is his rushing ability. As a recruit, he was the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in his class, and his 349-2,192-22 career rushing line at Texas A&M speaks to his overall Konami Code competence.
It’s also in his favor that Mond was a four-year producer in college and saw action as a true freshman.
But his passing stats in college were modest: In only one season (2020) did he have even 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A).
- 2017 (10 games): 51.5% completion rate | 227-1,375-8 passing | 5.1 AY/A
- 2018 (13 games): 57.3% completion rate | 415-3,107-24 passing | 7.7 AY/A
- 2019 (13 games): 61.6% completion rate | 419-2,897-20 passing | 6.9 AY/A
- 2020 (10 games): 63.3% completion rate | 297-2,282-19 passing | 8.5 AY/A
Mond had just 27 interceptions in 46 games, so he’s not careless with the ball. He played in a pro-style offense, and he generally improved throughout his college career. As a senior, he took just eight sacks after allowing 19, 33 and 32 in the previous seasons (per SIS, 2021 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook).
But he never took a significant step forward in any season, and he’s average at almost everything to do with passing: He has average accuracy, anticipation and arm strength.
He’s good at navigating the pocket and has the athleticism and awareness to extend plays, sometimes in dramatic fashion.
Kellen Mond. Christian Kirk.
THAT. WAS. RIDICULOUS.
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 8, 2017
Of all the quarterbacks in this class, he’s my favorite outside of the Big Five. With his rushing ability, he could be a fantasy contributor — especially in superflex and two-quarterback leagues — if he somehow becomes a starter.
But I doubt he ever becomes a regular NFL starter, and even if that happens, he will likely be more of a game manager with a built-in rushing floor and less of a playmaker with a coveted rushing ceiling.
If he goes in Round 2 — maybe even Round 3 — I might change my tune a little. With that draft capital, he could be a viable long-term hold in dynasty (depending on landing spot, of course).
But if Mond is drafted outside the top 100, he’ll look like a career backup at best.
NFL Prospect Comp: Kevin Hogan but younger and not as accurate
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.