2019 NFL Draft Prop: Will Kyler Murray Be Drafted in the Top Two?

2019 NFL Draft Prop: Will Kyler Murray Be Drafted in the Top Two? article feature image

Trevor Ruszkowski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kyler Murray

  • The 2019 NFL Draft begins on April 25 and will be held in Nashville, TN.
  • Matthew Freedman breaks down quarterback Kyler Murray's draft position prop.

The 2019 NFL draft is rapidly approaching and will be held in Nashville.

Here’s the schedule for the seven rounds.

  • Thursday, April 25: Round 1
  • Friday, April 26: Rounds 2-3
  • Saturday, April 27: Rounds 4-7

Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray has recently emerged as a strong candidate for the No. 1 overall pick.

How high will he be selected in the draft?

Here’s his draft position prop as well as my analysis.

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2019 NFL Draft: Kyler Murray Draft Position, Over/Under 2.5 

  • Over 2.5: +140
  • Under 2.5: -185

Less than a month ago, the over/under for Murray’s draft position was 9.5. Now, it’s 2.5.

Long gone are the days when the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner was +500 to be the No. 1 overall pick.

While Murray was listed at 5-foot-9 and 195 pounds in college, he bested those measurements at the combine, standing 5-foot-10 and weighing 207 pounds.

That’s still small for a quarterback, but Murray now has a verified size that makes him highly comparable to Russell Wilson (5-foot-11, 204 pounds), who could have been a top-five selection in the 2012 draft if not for concerns about his size.

Given how Wilson has played throughout his career and how former Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield (six-foot-1, 215 pounds) performed last year as a rookie, many NFL teams are much likelier to give Murray the benefit of the doubt when it comes to size concerns.

Although the Cardinals just drafted quarterback Josh Rosen with the No. 10 pick overall in the 2018 draft, it’s very possible that they could draft Murray with the top pick now.

Before being hired by the Cardinals, head coach Kliff Kingsbury publicly said that he thinks Murray should be the No. 1 pick, and he and Murray just so happen to have the same agent.

At the combine, general manager Steve Keim was asked about whether Rosen was the team’s starting quarterback, to which he responded with: “Yeah. He is right now, for sure.”

In subsequent interviews, Keim walked back his milquetoast endorsement of Rosen, and Kingsbury has been very affirming of Rosen in public.

Y’all are having fun with speculation, but… pic.twitter.com/dy4NbJ82iB

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) February 12, 2019

But Murray is unquestionably the more dynamic player and is almost certainly a better fit for Kingsbury’s offense.

And even if the Cardinals don’t draft him, another team could trade up with them — or the 49ers — to select Murray with a top-two pick.

Over the past decade, only twice has a quarterback not been selected in the top two, and in those drafts the position was a barren wasteland.

  • 2018: Baker Mayfield (1)
  • 2017: Mitchell Trubisky (2)
  • 2016: Jared Goff (1), Carson Wentz (2)
  • 2015: Jameis Winston (1), Marcus Mariota (2)
  • 2014: No QB in top two, Blake Bortles (3)
  • 2013: No QB in top two, E.J. Manuel (16)
  • 2012: Andrew Luck (1), Robert Griffin III (2)
  • 2011: Cam Newton (1)
  • 2010: Sam Bradford (1)
  • 2009: Matthew Stafford (1)

Based on the historical numbers, there’s about an 80% chance that at least one quarterback will be selected with a top-two pick, and for most draft analysts (including me), Murray has the edge on Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins as the top prospect at the position.

If one of these two guys is to be selected before pick No. 3, my money is on Murray.

With -185 odds, Murray has a 64.9% implied probability of being a top-two selection. I’d put his true odds closer to 75%.

I’d bet under 2.5 all the way to -250.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (-185)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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