Kyler Murray NFL Draft Odds: Will the Heisman Favorite Get Picked?

Kyler Murray NFL Draft Odds: Will the Heisman Favorite Get Picked? article feature image

Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kyler Murray

  • Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray led the highest-scoring offense in college football this season with video game numbers.
  • Some oddsmakers don't seem to like his chances to make the NFL, though, listing his odds not to be drafted in 2019 at -325.

Betting odds: Will Kyler Murray Be Drafted in the 2019 NFL Draft?

  • Yes: +250 ($100 wins $250)
  • No: -325 ($325 wins $100)

Obviously it needs to be said that these props will have very low limits. Books aren’t going to go out of business on Kyler Murray NFL or MLB bets. But hey, sports are supposed to be fun.

With that PSA out of the way, it’s time to break this wager down.

I’m not the foremost college football expert at The Action Network. But, I do know what Minor League Baseball is like, having covered the MiLB beat for MLB for two years.

If I had a dime for how many times a 19-year-old told me he had to “stay humble and keep grinding,” I’d be on an island somewhere running my own offshore book.

It’s a cliche, of course, but these prospects aren’t lying about the grind of Minor League life. If Murray sticks to his original plan of honoring his commitment to the Oakland A’s, who drafted him ninth overall in the 2018 MLB Draft and saddled him with a $4.66 million signing bonus, he will likely start in Class A and play for the Beloit Snappers of the Midwest League.

Beloit, Wis. seems like a wonderful city from what I’ve heard from from two of The Action Network’s most proud Wisconsinites — Connor Nolte and Matt Mitchell. I’m sure the 21-year-old will love his time in the home of the cheese puff, but it’s the rest of the “grind” that would worry me if I was the A’s.

Sure, when Murray signed on he knew what was ahead of him, but after lighting up the college football scene and doing the whole Heisman thing, the idea of a nine-hour bus ride from Beloit to Eastlake, Ohio to face the Lake County Captains on a cold April night may seem a little underwhelming.

Even though Murray’s baseball agent, Scott Boras, said he will be in Spring Training with the A’s, the client was a little less emphatic in an interview with Tim Tebow last weekend:

“I think that’s something me and my family will talk about at the end of the season,” Murray said to ESPN. “Weigh out the options of what the NFL thinks of you. Right now, my future is kind of already planned out, but we’ll see what happens.”

You may be thinking that this is a two-way street. To get drafted, an NFL team would have to pick Murray, which would be risky given that he’s also a professional baseball player and baseball is a lot safer than football.

I’m not worried about that. If he says he’s going to play in the NFL, a team will take him. Go ahead and look at the quarterbacks that teams are trotting out this week: Mark Sanchez, Cody Kessler, Chase Daniel, Nick Mullens. Quarterbacks don’t grow on trees.

In fact, NFL Draft guru Todd McShay said Murray would be a first-round pick if he declared.

At this point, it seems like a genuine coin flip. At +250 the market suggests there’s ~28.6% chance Murray gets picked in the NFL Draft. That number is only going to go one way after he collects the Heisman Trophy. So I’d suggest it’s a good play if betting these props is your thing.

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