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Chargers-Browns Betting Preview: How to Bet This Over/Under

Oct 14, 2018 10:00 AM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Melvin Ingram, Denzel Ward

Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

  • Spread: PK
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • Channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Quite early in the week, sharp action on the Browns pushed them down from +2 to a PK. This stemmed from a reverse line move at Pinnacle, one of the sharpest offshore books on the market.

Despite getting more than 60% of bets, the Chargers clearly aren’t getting enough money from sharp players to move the line back in their direction (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, no stadium has treated under bettors better than FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland. The Under is 74-47-1 (61.2%) at the Dawg Pound according to our Bet Labs data, profiting bettors 23.1 units in that span.  — Evan Abrams

Not only has the under been profitable in Cleveland but weather is providing another reason to bet the under in this one. The forecast calls for average wind speeds of 13 mph during the game.

Since 2003, in NFL games with average winds of 10 mph or stronger the under is 439-351-10 (56%). (Be sure to check the forecast closer to kickoff, as forecasts can shift.) — John Ewing

Metrics that matter: The Chargers will really miss Joey Bosa this week against a very vulnerable Browns offensive line that has allowed the second-most sacks in the league and ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate.

Cleveland struggles at both tackle spots, but can now focus its efforts on doubling Melvin Ingram.

The Chargers’ 4-3 scheme is just not the same without Bosa. L.A. has 11 sacks on the season (tied for 19th in NFL) — six fewer than the Chargers had at this same point last season. — Stuckey

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