Chargers-Patriots Betting Preview: Will Rivers Struggle vs. Brady Again?


USA Today Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers, Tom Brady

Jan 13, 2019, 11:55 AM EST

Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -4
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Time: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Sunday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting Market

In a round when trendy dogs are the trendy thing, the Chargers are the trendiest with 61% of spread bets.

They’re also getting 70% of the money as of writing (see live data here), which has helped them move from +5 to +4 — not the most consequential of line moves, but there is still time for them to move closer to the key number of +3.

The over/under has been in flux thanks to the forecast, which we’ll get into next. Mark Gallant

Weather Report

The snowstorm that was in the forecast earlier in the week is no more. The initial panic around the weather caused the over/under to drop from 47.5 to 45, but it’s now back up to 47.5 with no snow in the forecast.

The temperature will be in the mid-20s. Wind speeds of 5-6 mph should not impact the passing game too much.Gallant

Tom Brady is 18-7-1 against the spread in regular-season games played in 32 degrees or colder, but his playoff record in such freezing temperatures is only 7-7 ATS. John Ewing

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Trends to Know

Brady has been a home favorite in the postseason by an average of 8.4 points since 2003, per our Bet Labs data.

This is just the fifth time in 21 home playoff games that the Patriots have been a favorite of fewer than six points. They went 3-1 straight up and ATS in the previous four. Ewing

Sacking Brady is the key to ATS success against the Patriots. Here is their ATS record when Brady is pressured:

  • Brady sacked one or fewer times: 96-46-2 (68%) ATS
  • Sacked two or three times: 67-52-6 (56%) ATS
  • Sacked four or more times: 13-21-2 (38%) ATS Ewing

For the 35th time since 2003, Brady will start a home game on more than seven full days of rest. The Patriots are 31-3 (91.2%) SU and 19-13-2 (59.4%) ATS in the previous 34 games, covering by 5.2 points per game.

The only three quarterbacks to beat Brady in Foxborough in this spot? Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez and Peyton Manning. Evan Abrams

Philip Rivers is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in Foxborough and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS against the Patriots overall.

If you zoom in just on the past decade, Rivers 0-4 SU and ATS against Brady. This is Rivers’ least profitable opposing quarterback matchup over that span. Abrams

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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