Chargers-Steelers SNF Betting Preview: Fade the Public with This Over/Under?

Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -3
• Over/Under: 51.5
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV channel: NBC

Betting market: Betting activity for this game is very split, and so are the books, with some posting the Steelers at -3 and others at -3.5.

Of course, when a situation like this takes place, we often see heavy juice on either side. Those with Pittsburgh at -3 are in the -125 range, and those at -3.5 are around -125 on the Chargers.

Though the over is the second-most popular of the week with more than 80% of bets as of writing (see live data here), multiple waves of sharp action on the under have dropped it from 52.5 to 51.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Steelers lost on the road to the Broncos last week, making this Sunday Night Football matchup that much more important for Big Ben & Co.

According to our Bet Labs data, Ben Roethlisberger is 14-8 (63.6%) against the spread when playing in prime time the week after a straight-up loss, covering by more than a field goal per game to profit bettors six units. That makes him the third-most profitable quarterback in this spot behind Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

When playing in December or later, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in this spot, covering by an average of 6.4 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Roethlisberger is 22-16 ATS when playing at home following a loss, including 18-11 ATS when facing a non-division opponent. — John Ewing

At 8-3, the Chargers are off to their best start to a season since 2009, when they also started 8-3. Since then, Philip Rivers has been listed as an underdog when he has a winning percentage of 70% or higher only four times.

The Chargers are 0-4 SU and ATS in that spot, losing two of those games in prime time. — Abrams

Did you know? Rivers was drafted fourth overall by the Giants in 2004 (and traded to the Chargers). Roethlisberger was taken seven picks later at 11th overall.

Here's how the two have stacked up ATS over their careers. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Steelers' OL/DL vs. Chargers DL/OL

Steelers position players get all of the publicity, but it's their line play that has them in first place in the AFC North. They have arguably the best O-line in football, something Pro Football Focus verified in its latest rankings.

With Joey Bosa back and clearly healthy — he had two sacks in his last game — the Chargers have one of the NFL's best pass rushes. They rank only 28th in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate, but that will change with Bosa back.

However, the Steelers have the personnel to contain both Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who combined for 23 sacks last season. The underlying metrics agree, as Pittsburgh's offensive line ranks No. 1 in adjusted sack rate.

Big Ben has been sacked only 16 times, tied with Tom Brady for the second-fewest.

While the Steelers' O-line can more than hold its own, the real mismatch is on the other side of the ball.

The Steelers should get after Rivers all night long. Just like its offensive line, Pittsburgh's D-line also ranks No. 1 in adjusted sack rate. The Steelers have already totaled 39 sacks this season, which paces the league.

They'll face a Chargers' front that PFF ranks as the NFL's fifth-worst unit. It struggles more in pass protection, which will be an issue against the Steelers' pass rush, especially since running back Melvin Gordon (knee) likely won't play.

The Chargers will be counting on Rivers to drop back and throw frequently, which spells disaster against a Steelers pass rush that might not have to respect the run.

Look for a breakout game from T.J. Watt, who should take advantage of a very weak right side of the Chargers' offensive line. Of all 62 tackles who have played at least 400 snaps this season, Chargers right tackle Sam Tevi grades dead last in pass-blocking per PFF.

Bottom line: The Steelers should win this game in the trenches, by containing the Chargers' pass rush on the offensive side of the ball and by putting constant pressure on Rivers when on defense.

Having the best adjusted sack rate on both offense and defense will win you a lot of games. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Steelers

The Chargers are expected to be without Gordon for the foreseeable future, and it's unclear whether wide receiver Tyrell Williams (quad) will be able to do more than serve as a decoy this week. The defense is at least expected to have cornerback Trevor Williams (knee) back.

The Steelers are also fairly healthy. Only linebacker Bud Dupree (pec), right tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) and safety Morgan Burnett (back) seem at risk of missing Sunday's game.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: A home matchup against a Chargers team that ranks 27th in PFF's run defense grades looks like an excellent bounce-back spot for James Conner.

Conner's 21.4 touches per game ranks fourth in the league, and he's smashed at home this season, averaging 21.38 FanDuel points per game with a +8.46 Plus/Minus. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Over 51.5

I know I'm on the donkey side of this bet. I don't care.

As of writing, 81% percent of tickets and 90% of money are on the over, but the total has dropped one point. This reverse line movement suggests that sharps are on the under.

Even so, I'm drawn to the Steelers home over like a moth to a tiki torch.

In the "Antonio Brown is a perennial All-Pro wide receiver" era (since 2014), the Steelers have an over/under record of 21-10-0 in Roethlisberger's home starts with an outrageous cover margin of 7.1 points. That’s good for a 31.5% return on investment (per our data at Bet Labs).

And the over has been even more exploitable when the Steelers have faced teams unfamiliar with them. Since 2014, the Steelers have a home over/under record of 15-6 against non-divisional opponents with a margin of 8.6 points. That comes out to a 38.5% ROI.

In prime time with both teams needing wins to solidify their playoff seedings, I expect points to be scored. — Matthew Freedman

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.