Rams-Bears SNF Betting Preview: Can Chicago Hang With the Red-Hot Rams?

Rams-Bears SNF Betting Preview: Can Chicago Hang With the Red-Hot Rams? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff, Khalil Mack

Betting odds: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

  • Spread: Rams -3
  • Over/Under: 51.5
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: With bettors having to lay just a few points on the mighty Rams, Los Angeles is getting three-quarters of the spread bets at the time of writing (see live data here).

News broke on Wednesday that Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) practiced in full and is expected to start, but not much changed. Books kept the line on the key number of three. Even public betting percentages didn’t sway much, but I imagine Chicago gets a bit more love by the end of the week.

The over/under has been hammered. Almost 75% of bets and more than 90% of the money is on the under, which has caused the line to drop to 51.5 since opening at 54.Mark Gallant

Weather report: Bundle up. Like much of the Midwest, Chicago will be chilly on Sunday night with temperatures in the mid-20s. The Windy City won’t be living up to its name, though, as wind speeds will only be about 6 mph. Gallant

Trends to know: Between college and the NFL, Jared Goff has one career start in freezing temperatures (32 degrees or colder): Earlier this season in Denver, where he went 14-of-28 for no touchdowns and one interception. He was sacked five times in a narrow 23-20 win for the Rams, who failed to cover the seven-point spread.

Goff had started two games prior to that with the temperature below 40 degrees. The Rams lost both straight-up and against the spread, scoring a combined 13 points. Evan Abrams

The Rams are the only 11-win team in the NFL. Casual bettors like wagering on the best teams, which leads to squads like Los Angeles being overvalued, especially late in the season.

Since 2003, betting against teams that have won more than 80% of their games has gone 134-101-2 (57%) ATS when the game is played from December through the playoffs.John Ewing

Did you know? Since 2003, when teams scoring at least 30 points per game face a defense that’s allowing fewer than 21 points per game in December or later, the high-scoring team is just 29-42-3 (40.8%) ATS, losing bettors 14.3 units.

And when the game is played in temperatures below 40 degrees, the high-scoring team falls to 8-18 (30.8%) ATS, losing bettors 10.4 units.

Advantage: Bears. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Rams’ Defensive Line vs. Bears’ Offensive Line

Trubisky’s return should help the offensive line more than statue-esque passer Chase Daniel, but the Bears still face an uphill climb against the Rams’ fearsome front.

League MVP candidate Aaron Donald is easily Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 overall interior defender this season, while Ndamukong Suh isn’t far behind at No. 28. And the addition of Dante Fowler has provided a much-needed boost of athleticism off the edge.

Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Donald

Overall, Trubisky and the Bears have the fifth-highest combined pressure rate in Week 14. Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Rams

The Rams will turn to rookie John Kelly to work as Todd Gurley’s backup with Malcolm Brown (clavicle, IR) sidelined for the remainder of the season. They’re otherwise healthy.

The Bears are also in great shape, as they expect to welcome back Trubisky.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Rams join the Chiefs as the league’s most matchup-proof offenses thanks to their top-tier scheme and consistently excellent quarterback play.

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to call Sunday night’s matchup against the Bears anything but tough: Kyle Fuller (No. 4), Bryce Callahan (No. 9) and Prince Amukamara (No. 15) rank among PFF’s top 15 corners this season.

Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds are still certainly in play in season-long leagues of all formats.

Reynolds could carry enhanced value down the stretch if the Rams rest their starters since he’d likely work as the offense’s No. 1 receiver with the rest of the backups while Woods is popping the most in our FantasyLabs Models this week at $6,700 on DraftKings, where he boasts a +2.3 Projected Plus/Minus. Hartitz

Bet to watch: Bears +3

Fading one of the best teams in football is never fun, but when the numbers and the situation call for it, you do what ya gotta do.

Our very own Power Ratings — from the 🐐 Sean Koerner — suggest this line should be closer to 1.5.

The Rams’ elite coaching staff scares me a bit in this matchup, but Vic Fangio is the one defensive coordinator I’d choose to go head-to-head with Sean McVay right now.

Fangio has helped build a defense that’s far and away the league’s best, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, ranking first against the run and pass.

In fact, the difference between Chicago and the No. 2 overall defense (Denver) is equal to the difference between Denver and the No. 9 unit (Cleveland).

The Bears force a league-leading 2.5 turnovers per game on average. They might not meet that number vs. LA, but I like their odds of flipping the field a few times in their offense’s favor, which would be huge for Trubisky & Co.

I’d grab the +3 while it lasts. The juice suggest this line will likely move to 2.5 in the near future. Scott Miller

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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