Dolphins-Vikings Betting Preview: Sell High After the ‘Miami Miracle’?

Dec 16, 2018 04:00 AM EST
Credit:

Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Adam Gase, Dowell Loggins

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

  • Spread: Vikings -7.5
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Though some books opened this game up in the -8 range, the line dropped to the key number of 7 for a while before bumping up to 7.5.

The line even dropped to 6.5 on a couple of occasions, but it appears sharp bettors like the Vikes if they don’t need to lay a touchdown. Miami is getting around 40% of bets and dollars (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Dolphins are coming off a 34-33 win over the Patriots as 8.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving Miami much credit for their miracle win.

In the past five seasons, teams that won their previous game as a touchdown or greater underdog and then are getting 7 or more points in their next game have gone 1-18 straight up and 4-15 against the spread, per our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

Miami (7-6) has a winning record but a negative point differential (-55). Since 2003, teams with a winning record but the pythagorean win% of a losing team, like the Dolphins, have gone 119-152-12 (44%) ATS. — John Ewing

The Dolphins are in a unique spot after the “Miami Miracle.” Since 2011, 17 teams have defeated the Patriots at home in the regular season. Those teams have gone 5-12 straight up and 3-14 ATS in their next game. — Evan Abrams

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