Dolphins-Jets Betting Preview: Hop Aboard the Sam Darnold Hype Train?

Sep 14, 2018 7:50 AM EDT

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

  • Spread: Jets -3
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Sam Darnold is already receiving the majority of bets as a favorite in just the second game of his career, which is probably not what most would have expected a couple months back.

Nevertheless, the line is stuck on the key number of NYJ -3 across the market. The juice is leaning toward the Dolphins, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a wave of sharp action push them to +2.5 before the week is over. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Jets upset the Lions as a 7-point underdog in Week 1. Under Todd Bowles, the Jets are 2-6 straight-up and against the spread after pulling an upset win in their previous game, failing to cover the spread by 9.2 points per game.

Teams that win by double digits in Week 1 after finishing below .500 SU the season prior are only 13-19-5 ATS (-6.5 units), including 0-4 ATS last season. Evan Abrams

Are we sure the Jets are good? Sure, New York smashed Detroit. But the Jets defense picked off Matthew Stafford four times, returning one for a touchdown, and had a punt return for a touchdown.

That’s not likely to happen again.

In the first half of the season, it has been profitable to fade non-playoff teams from the previous season when they have a winning record and are favored: 248-192-16 ATS (56%) since 2003. John Ewing

Injury watch: The Dolphins defense is good to go, but left guard Josh Sitton (shoulder) wasn’t able to practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Former first-round wide receiver DeVante Parker (finger) is expected to make his season debut after practicing in full Thursday.

Jets receivers Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson will now have to battle Jermaine Kearse (abdomen) for targets, as Kearse practiced fully on both Wednesday and Thursday.

New York’s defense likely won’t have linebacker Josh Martin (concussion) or safety Marcus Maye (foot) for at least another week. Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30 pm EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

DFS edge: Enunwa’s 0.97 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) — a volume metric that combines target share and share of team air yards — trailed that of only Julio Jones (1.18) and Odell Beckham Jr. (1.02) in Week 1.

Enunwa is only $5,000 on FanDuel with a 91% Bargain Rating and has the highest projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers. Joe Holka

Bet to watch: Dolphins +3

The Jets are winning the Super Bowl. Darnold is the new Tom Brady. Bowles is the next Bill Belichick. Eric Tomlinson and his nine career catches are the second coming of Gronk.

Can we please stop this already? It was one game.

The Jets are still a below-average football team that simply had an outlier performance against a team that they match up very well against.

I bet the Jets last weekend because 1) the 7-point spread was inflated and 2) the Lions (who have probably the worst defensive line in football) couldn’t exploit Gang Green’s offensive line (which is maybe the worst in football).

Well, the Dolphins have the defensive line talent and depth to create chaos for the rookie QB making his first start in New York.

While Darnold did look great — and I like his future — he essentially operated from a completely clean pocket all day. Life won’t be as easy on Sunday.

On offense, I actually liked some of the things I saw from Miami against Tennessee, especially from its O-line and Ryan Tannehill, who is 3-1 in his career at MetLife.

I’m a big fan of RB Kenyan Drake, and Miami has more weapons on the outside with Kenny Stills and the return of Parker.

Throw in a short week for the Jets after a road game and I’m on the Fins +3. (And no, I can’t believe I’m playing the Dolphins twice in the first two weeks either.) Stuckey


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Robby Anderson, Sam Darnold

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45.5
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42.5
56
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