Mike Evans Prop Pick: Betting Against His Touchdown Production with Tom Brady

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Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Evans

Mike Evans Prop Pick for 2020


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I could see Mike Evans taking a step back with Tom Brady replacing Jameis Winston under center.

Winston led the NFL in pass attempts of 20 or more yards with 99 last season — Evans accounted for 25 as one of the league’s premier deep threats. I think Brady would be the first person to admit his deep ball isn’t what it once was, which means this new QB/WR combo will need to work on building their chemistry.

We’ll have to see how this offseason takes shape as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold across the country. If OTAs and/or training camps are scrapped, the Brady-to-Evans connection would be a work in progress in-season.

I say all this with the 9.5 TDs prop in mind — it’s a pretty lofty number considering only two wide receivers surpassed it last season: Kenny Golladay (11) and Cooper Kupp (10). You could certainly argue that Evans has 10-plus TD upside with Brady under center, but I’m projecting Evans closer to eight.

The value play here is to take the under. However, if you’d rather bet on Evans’ upside, it would be wise to wait for the most TD reception markets to open, for which I would expect Evans’ price to be in the 6-1 to 15-1 range. Betting the over on 9.5 rec TDs is not much different than betting on Evans to lead the league in rec TDs, so you might as well invest in Evans’ ceiling and get a much bigger payout!

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