Vikings-Lions Betting Preview: Trust Minnesota to Keep Rolling vs. Stafford & Co.?
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9).
Betting odds: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Vikings -6
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Friday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: The Vikings have re-won the public’s heart after their slaughter of Miami. More than 60% of bettors are backing them as less than a touchdown favorite, but the line has remained in that inconsequential -4.5 to -6 range.
Trends to know: In Matthew Stafford’s career, he is 20-28-3 ATS (41.7%) when facing NFC North opponents, making him the least profitable active QB against divisional opponents.
When Stafford’s opponent in this spot is above .500, the Lions are 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%), losing three consecutive games in this spot just this season. — Evan Abrams
Did you know? A loss to the Vikings would be the Lions’ 10th of the season and would give the team their 11th season of double-digit losses since 2000 and the fourth in the Matthew Stafford era.
From 1930-1999, Detroit only had 12 double-digit loss seasons. — John Ewing
Playoff picture: To clinch a playoff berth this week, the Vikings need to win and then have the Eagles lose/tie and the Redskins lose.
Even if those last two things don’t happen, Minnesota will still have a good shot to make the postseason, so long as it takes care of business against Detroit.
Our sims currently give the Vikings a 61.3% chance to play in January entering this week. — Scott T. Miller
Which team is healthier? Vikings
Only linebacker Eric Kendricks (hamstring) and defensive tackle Linval Joseph (knee) appear to be at risk of missing actual game time for the Vikings. The Lions on the other hand are a walking graveyard.
Starting running back Kerryon Johnson (knee) and defensive tackle Da’Shawn (hand) were each placed on the injured reserve list, while their successors LeGarrette Blount (calf) and Damon Harrison (ankle) should be considered questionable.
The passing game also isn’t at 100%, as receivers Bruce Ellington (concussion) and Kenny Golladay (chest) joined Matthew Stafford (back) as limited participants in practice on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Biggest mismatch and DFS Edge: Adam Thielen vs. Lions secondary
Adam Thielen will be up against a Lions defense which ranks dead last in pass DVOA. And with Darius Slay shadowing Stefon Diggs, Thielen will likely see a lot of Nevin Lawson, Pro Football Focus’ No. 100 cornerback in coverage.
He presently owns the fifth-highest median projection in our FantasyLabs Player Models on DraftKings and FanDuel, and his ownership could be reduced in tournaments if DFS players are turned off by his previous performance. —Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Lions +6
I have this game being closer to +4 in my power ratings. The Vikings fired their offensive coordinator John DeFilippo after an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football in Week 14. They felt that they needed to become more balanced and run the ball more.
Sure enough, in Week 15 they blew out the Dolphins with a season-high 220 rushing yards. They are probably going into Detroit with the same gameplan, but could run into a wall.
That wall would be Damon “Snacks” Harrison who the Lions acquired from the Giants in Week 8. Since then, the Lions have allowed 34 fewer rushing yards per game.
I think the Lions surprise here and keep it close. Take the points. — Sean Koerner
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.