Vikings-Packers Betting Preview: Rodgers Changes Everything

Betting odds: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -1
• Over/Under: 46.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: This came off the board for a bit due to the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers' health (knee), but was back up at the time of writing with 86% of bettors were taking the Vikings +1 (see live odds here).

If Rodgers is out, those Vikings bettors will have some great closing line value, as most folks in the industry expect the line to move to Vikings -7.

The Westgate SuperContest spread is exactly Vikings -7, which shows you that they are skeptical of Rodgers’ availability this weekend. —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: If Rodgers plays, I have an important reminder: It hasn’t been profitable to bet against No. 12. Including the playoffs, when Rodgers & Co. are getting fewer than 50% of spread tickets, the Packers are 13-7-1 against the spread. — John Ewing

Rodgers isn't just valuable to the Packers; he's also cashed with regularity for bettors.

Since Rodgers' first start for the Packers in 2008, only five other NFL franchises have profited bettors at least 10 units: Patriots, Vikings, Bengals, Saints and Colts.

Of those five teams, Rodgers’ profit differential is larger than that of any other quarterback for the other five teams, including Tom Brady. — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The Vikings' secondary is fairly healthy with CB Mackensie Alexander (ankle) and Trae Waynes (leg) getting in full practices on Thursday, but Minnesota could be down some players in the trenches if DE Everson Griffen (toe) and C Pat Elflein (shoulder, ankle) are ultimately unable to suit up.

Rodgers (knee) hasn’t returned to practice this week, but the Packers confirmed he doesn’t need to necessarily practice in order to start Sunday.

WR Davante Adams (shoulder) appears on track to suiting up after returning to practice Thursday, but the defense could be without S Josh Jones (ankle) and LB Oren Burks (shoulder). — Ian Hartitz

Note: All injury info as of Thursday 9/13 at 5:30 pm EST. Please visit our Week 2 Injury Dashboard for updated daily practice participation and game statuses up until game time.

DFS edge: Rodgers’ status remains uncertain, and his matchup against the Vikings’ talented defense is certainly less than ideal.

Still, the all-world quarterback demonstrated the ability to consistently dominate on essentially one leg after suffering a hamstring injury in 2016.

Overall, Rodgers averaged 25.6 DraftKings PPG with a +2.7 Plus/Minus in 11 games before his injury, compared to 26.8 PPG and a +4.7 Plus/Minus in eight games after (including playoffs).

Vikings WR Stefon Diggs is one of the league’s best receivers when healthy, and also when indoors.

Overall, Diggs has averaged 16.7 PPR points per game in 18 career games indoors and 11.6 PPR points per game in 26 outdoor matchups (including playoffs). He'll be playing outdoors on Sunday at Lambeau Field — Ian Hartitz

All eyes on Rodgers:You can't bet this game without knowing the status of Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings have the superior roster, but do you want to fade Rodgers at home where he's 44-24-3 ATS (64.7%), covering by an average of 4.5 points per game?

Probably not.

How about inside his division? 35-19 ATS (64.8%).

How about inside the division at home? 18-9 ATS (66.7%).

Nope and nope.

Rodgers’ greatness transcends matchups, especially at home. Everybody knows it, but he still will find a way to outperform the spread. The Packers at home with Rodgers are the Patriots of the NFC.

If Rodgers doesn’t play, you'll get DeShone Kizer, a guy who turned it over twice in 14 snaps in Week 1.

When Rodgers sits out, the Packers are just 2-8 ATS (20%) at home since Rodgers took over as starter in 2008. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.